BREAKING NEWS : Allen County Councilman Joel Benz plans to accept TRAA executive director position Full Story

Weather Blog: What does the rain percentage really mean?

The rain percentage can spark a 100 percent chance of confusion.

Posted: Mar 11, 2021 9:49 AM
Updated: Jul 13, 2021 8:09 AM

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WFFT) — It is probably one of the most misunderstood terms in weather, the chance of precipitation.

Those percentages appear frequently in the 7-day and hourly planners, but it is not completely understood what the numbers mean.

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER

Download the FOX 55 Severe Weather Center App on Apple

Download the FOX 55 Severe Weather Center App on Android 

Rainwater drops in a puddle

Recently, a TikTok user shared her confusion and it sparked a conversation.

@sydjkell

♬ original sound - Syd

For instance, some people might think that a 60% chance of rain means that 60% of their area, such as Fort Wayne, will see rain.

Others might think that a 60% chance of rain means that it will rain 60% of the day.

Let’s start with terminology.

POP means the probability of precipitation.

It’s a mathematical equation that is used to forecast the coverage of rain.

Chance of rain = Confidence X Area

Confidence meaning that forecaster is confident the precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area.

Area represents the locations that will receive measurable precipitation.

The WFFT viewing area covers approximately 20 counties that spans across two states.

The POP that we always talk about is for the viewing area only.

Using the equation above, I am 100% sure that 60% of our forecast area will receive at least 0.01” of rain.

So the forecast for the day calls for a 60% chance of rain.

If you move outside of the WFFT area, then that percentage will change.

It is important to note that the percentage does not factor in how much rain will fall and the intensity of it.

Since PoPs can be tricky, you might hear me say “few” or “scattered” instead.

If we are looking at 10% to 30% chance of showers during the day I will say "isolated".

From 40% to 60%, I will usually say the activity is "scattered" and anything above 70% is "likely" or "widespread".

Just remember, at the end of the day, the WFFT viewing area covers more than just one location.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 944708

Reported Deaths: 15343
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1287051987
Lake634321097
Allen53759760
Hamilton43980448
St. Joseph42010590
Elkhart33651491
Vanderburgh30486449
Tippecanoe26872250
Johnson23685417
Hendricks22354341
Porter21799347
Clark17493231
Madison17439384
Vigo16209284
Monroe14515191
LaPorte14350239
Delaware14134222
Howard13921273
Kosciusko11448135
Hancock10886166
Warrick10715177
Bartholomew10589169
Floyd10471206
Wayne10020226
Grant9165204
Morgan8895160
Boone8417111
Dubois7748123
Dearborn764990
Henry7648130
Noble7435101
Marshall7384128
Cass7209117
Lawrence6999153
Shelby6616111
Jackson659186
Gibson6177107
Harrison606286
Huntington603195
Montgomery5830105
DeKalb578391
Knox5506104
Miami545788
Putnam540568
Clinton535965
Whitley526553
Steuben499768
Wabash486292
Jasper481860
Jefferson472892
Ripley456077
Adams445568
Daviess4209108
Scott407965
White392957
Clay392857
Greene390592
Wells388784
Decatur385996
Fayette377278
Posey361541
Jennings354356
Washington333747
LaGrange323575
Spencer319536
Fountain317955
Randolph314889
Sullivan308449
Owen284863
Starke281464
Fulton280054
Orange276859
Jay256338
Perry252552
Carroll244929
Franklin240538
Rush235630
Vermillion234450
Parke221020
Tipton210555
Pike209539
Blackford169634
Pulaski165551
Crawford146718
Newton145245
Benton143516
Brown135546
Martin129317
Switzerland126210
Warren115516
Union97711
Ohio80111
Unassigned0479

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1373275

Reported Deaths: 21596
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin1527821560
Cuyahoga1349902327
Hamilton979751320
Montgomery674391141
Summit564421047
Lucas51165863
Butler47623655
Stark41836976
Lorain31748532
Warren30182331
Mahoning27127639
Clermont25753292
Lake24662417
Delaware22415145
Licking20587241
Fairfield20543221
Greene20436272
Trumbull19983509
Medina19884287
Clark17992328
Richland16428234
Portage16225229
Wood15771208
Allen14196256
Miami13889253
Muskingum12762152
Wayne12044238
Columbiana11800241
Tuscarawas11064269
Marion10797148
Pickaway10519129
Scioto10394127
Erie9784171
Ross9502176
Lawrence8809125
Hancock8514141
Ashtabula8376185
Geauga8196156
Belmont8180187
Jefferson7589172
Huron7476128
Union736651
Washington7245120
Athens701765
Sandusky6885134
Darke6789136
Knox6724122
Seneca6422137
Ashland5989113
Auglaize590488
Shelby5774101
Brown568571
Mercer560290
Defiance5511101
Crawford5477114
Madison546771
Highland545081
Fulton536283
Clinton529280
Logan514282
Preble5033110
Putnam4859106
Guernsey474764
Williams462282
Perry456452
Champaign448864
Ottawa439084
Jackson429562
Pike392643
Morrow389051
Coshocton381666
Fayette378453
Adams363575
Hardin362069
Gallia349856
Henry327368
Holmes3273108
Van Wert316170
Hocking305169
Wyandot282658
Carroll264752
Paulding243543
Meigs217442
Monroe190849
Noble171140
Morgan168129
Harrison159340
Vinton139318
Unassigned05
Fort Wayne
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 72° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 43°
Angola
Partly Cloudy
50° wxIcon
Hi: 71° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 50°
Huntington
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 73° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 43°
Decatur
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 72° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 43°
Van Wert
Partly Cloudy
51° wxIcon
Hi: 72° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 51°
Sunshine and warmer air return to round out the work week, but the warm-up is brief.
WFFT Radar
WFFT Temperatures
WFFT National

Community Events