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At least 4 states combined numbers from two tests, possibly providing a misleading picture of coronavirus spread

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Posted: May 20, 2020 10:36 AM
Updated: May 21, 2020 9:30 AM


At least four states combined data from two different test results, potentially providing a misleading picture of when and where coronavirus spread as the nation eases restrictions.

More than 1.5 million people in the United States have tested positive for coronavirus and over 93,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Virginia, Texas, Georgia, and Vermont have said they've been adding two numbers to their totals: viral test results and antibody test results.

Viral tests are taken by nose swab or saliva sample, and look for direct evidence someone currently has Covid-19. By contrast, antibody tests use blood samples to look for biological signals that a person has been exposed to the virus in the past.

Combining the two tests' results into one total could provide an inaccurate picture of where and when the virus spread.

The combination also could also overstate a state's ability to test and track active infections -- a key consideration as states ease coronavirus restrictions.

Experts have consistently emphasized that for states to reopen safely, adequate testing and tracing is needed.

'You only know how many cases you have if you do a lot of testing,' said Elizabeth Cohen, CNN's senior medical correspondent. 'If you put the two tests together, you fool yourself into thinking you've done more testing than you have.'

Texas, Virginia and Vermont have said they've recognized the data issue and moved to fix it in the past few days. In Georgia, health officials said they've been adding antibody tests to their 'total tests' number in line with methodology from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC has not responded to CNN's request for comment on whether its guidance includes adding antibody tests to total test numbers. On its website, the database provides daily test results without a breakdown of whether they're viral or antibody.

US testing data 'kind of screwed up,' experts say

In a new report Wednesday, infectious disease experts described US coronavirus testing as disorganized and in need of coordination at the national level.

Testing is currently not accurate enough to be used to make most decisions on who should go back to work or to school, the team at the University of Minnesota said.

'It's a mess out there,' said Mike Osterholm, head of the university's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, which issued the report. 'Testing is very, very important, but we're not doing the right testing.'

The number of tests that have been completed -- numbers widely reported by states and by the White House -- show only part of the picture, the report reads.

'The data is really kind of screwed up,' Osterholm said. 'It's because the public health system is overwhelmed.'

Just this month, researchers described antibody tests in the United States as having 'terrible accuracy' with high rates of false positives.

And in recent days, Georgia and Florida have faced questions about the transparency of their coronavirus data reporting.

Track the virus

States reopening public places at their own pace

As of Wednesday, all 50 states had partially reopened.

States have moved at different paces as governors balance reopening their economies with keeping residents safe. Some states, including Georgia and Texas, rolled out aggressive reopening plans, while others have taken a more measured approach.

Alaska's and Iowa's governors said their states are ready to reopen most businesses Friday.

In Alaska, that means all houses of worship, libraries, museums and sporting activities can resume at 8 a.m., Gov. Mike Dunleavy's office said. Alaska has the fewest cases of all states and has reported single-digit new cases since mid-April.

Alaskans are still encouraged to take precautions, such as distancing and wearing masks in crowds, and visitation to prisons and senior centers will be limited.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds intends to allow movie theaters, zoos, aquariums, museums and wedding venues to reopen Friday, she said. Swimming pools will be allowed to open for laps and lessons as well. Bars can reopen May 28, and school-sponsored activities, such as sports, can resume June 1, she said.

Indiana also plans to move ahead with opening a large swath of its economy Friday, but with restrictions such as limiting social gatherings to 100 people and dining rooms to 50% capacity, and omitting contact games from the list of sports allowed to resume.

New York, California and Pennsylvania are among states allowing local areas reporting declines in new cases to reopen.

More than half of all California counties are moving forward with plans to reopen their economies further despite data showing the state recorded 102 deaths Tuesday, its second-highest number of daily coronavirus fatalities. The last time California reported the highest deaths in one day was 115 on April 21.

Many cities also remain under stay-at-home orders. In Baltimore, gatherings of more than 10 people are still prohibited and retail stores remain closed.

Experts have warned that lifting restrictions prematurely may mean thousands more Americans will die in a second spike in cases.

More deaths could have been prevented, report says

If the US had encouraged people to stay home and had put social distancing policies in place just a week earlier, more than half the number of deaths and infections could possibly have been prevented, according to new research from Columbia University.

Had the US locked the country down two weeks earlier, 84% of deaths and 82% of cases could have been averted, said the research team led by epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman.

'Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the Covid-19 pandemic,' they wrote in the report, published online in the pre-print server MedRxiv. The findings have not been reviewed by other experts for accuracy.

The first US case was reported at the end of January. It wasn't until mid-March that the Trump administration urged Americans to avoid groups and limit travel. That's also when cities including New York started to close schools. The study used epidemiologic modeling to gauge transmission rates from March 15 to May 3 and determine the impact social distancing could have on the transmission of the disease.

The first days were important, they noted. 'During the initial growth of a pandemic, infections increase exponentially. As a consequence, early intervention and fast response are critical,' they wrote.

However, they said, it's also true that they could not account for how people would have responded.

'Public compliance with social distancing rules may also lag due to sub-optimal awareness of infection risk,' they noted.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 33558

Reported Deaths: 2110
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9616571
Lake3538185
Cass15897
Allen145168
St. Joseph124834
Elkhart116328
Hendricks116171
Hamilton115693
Johnson1093108
Madison58559
Porter51627
Bartholomew50034
Clark49241
LaPorte42423
Howard39526
Tippecanoe3903
Jackson3791
Delaware37736
Shelby36822
Hancock32728
Floyd31839
Boone30935
Morgan27824
Vanderburgh2652
Montgomery23517
White2318
Decatur22431
Clinton2231
Noble21121
Grant20621
Harrison19221
Dubois1923
Henry16910
Greene16824
Monroe16612
Warrick16628
Dearborn16621
Vigo1648
Lawrence15423
Miami1411
Putnam1367
Jennings1304
Orange12522
Scott1193
Kosciusko1111
Franklin1098
Ripley1086
Carroll922
Marshall901
Daviess8516
Steuben812
Newton7710
Wayne776
Fayette767
Wabash762
LaGrange712
Jasper651
Washington521
Jay500
Fulton481
Clay471
Rush462
Randolph463
Pulaski460
Jefferson431
Whitley393
Starke363
Sullivan341
Owen341
Brown331
DeKalb331
Perry310
Benton300
Knox290
Wells280
Huntington272
Tipton251
Crawford240
Blackford242
Fountain202
Switzerland200
Spencer191
Parke170
Posey160
Gibson142
Adams131
Ohio130
Warren121
Martin110
Vermillion100
Union80
Pike60
Unassigned0164

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 34566

Reported Deaths: 2131
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Franklin5674256
Cuyahoga4318226
Marion265728
Hamilton2603147
Lucas2202240
Pickaway205036
Mahoning1405173
Summit1380172
Butler86229
Columbiana73951
Stark71691
Lorain67259
Montgomery65117
Trumbull56248
Belmont41912
Warren35920
Miami35530
Tuscarawas3393
Ashtabula33034
Medina32823
Portage32257
Delaware32013
Lake30212
Wood28546
Geauga27732
Wayne26650
Fairfield2586
Clark2526
Licking23010
Allen21232
Clermont2065
Mercer2037
Richland1973
Erie16711
Darke16721
Madison1527
Washington11819
Crawford1104
Morrow1051
Greene1015
Ottawa9513
Putnam9014
Monroe7712
Sandusky7311
Auglaize713
Hocking694
Ross682
Jefferson672
Huron561
Williams541
Union511
Muskingum500
Hancock501
Hardin450
Clinton430
Fayette400
Shelby403
Wyandot392
Fulton390
Coshocton380
Logan370
Preble351
Guernsey340
Defiance332
Holmes321
Carroll303
Lawrence300
Brown281
Champaign271
Knox241
Highland231
Ashland200
Seneca202
Vinton192
Perry181
Athens181
Henry150
Scioto150
Paulding140
Jackson130
Harrison100
Adams91
Gallia71
Van Wert60
Meigs60
Pike60
Noble60
Morgan50
Unassigned00
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