US could be in for 'a bad fall and a bad winter' if it's unprepared for a second wave of coronavirus, Fauci warns

Dr. Anthony Fauci talks to CNN's Jake Tapper about the US effort to ramp up coronavirus testing and what we have learned about Covid-19.

Posted: Apr 29, 2020 11:21 AM
Updated: Apr 29, 2020 11:21 AM

A second round of the coronavirus is "inevitable," the nation's top infectious disease doctor says, but just how bad it is will depend on the progress the US makes in the coming months.

"If by that time we have put into place all of the countermeasures that you need to address this, we should do reasonably well," Dr. Anthony Fauci said. "If we don't do that successfully, we could be in for a bad fall and a bad winter."

If states begin lifting restrictions too early, Fauci says he predicts the country could see a rebound of the virus that would "get us right back in the same boat that we were a few weeks ago," adding that the country could see many more deaths than are currently predicted.

So far, more than 1 million Americans have been infected and at least 58,355 have died. A leading model predicts more than 72,000 people will die in the US by early August.

Being able to test for the virus, track cases and isolate every infected American will be key factors in ensuring that second wave isn't as deadly, Fauci says.

The US continues to lag behind in testing, according to a new report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The nation has performed 16.4 tests per 1,000 people, according to the report. Spain and Italy, with the second and third highest number of cases after the US, have conducted 22.3 and 29.7 tests per 1,000 people respectively.

Fauci says the federal government needs to provide strategic guidance and assistance to help states up their number of conducted tests. He hopes he can guarantee everyone who needs a test can get one by the end of May or early June.

"The truth is that we're going in the right direction," he said. "But we need to continue to partner in a very active collaborative way with the states, we need to help them the same way they need to do the execution."

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How reopenings will affect virus numbers

In Georgia, where Gov. Brian Kemp began lifting restrictions on small businesses such as salons and bowling alleys last week, experts say the death toll will likely see a sharp rise as a result.

"There are a couple of conditions that really need to be met before you can safely lift social distancing restrictions," CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Celine Gounder said Tuesday.

Those factors include a 14-day decline of cases and deaths, a hospital capacity for expected patients and the ability to do contact tracing and testing, she said.

"Georgia doesn't meet any of the criteria," Gounder added.

Youyang Gu, the researcher behind one of the models shared by the US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention, projects the number of daily deaths in the state will nearly double by early August.

The model assumes social distancing will relax slightly as the state continues to reopen. The number of deaths per day in Georgia will jump from 32 fatalities on May 1 to a projected 63 people dying each day by August 4, the model forecasts.

The researcher's findings fall in line with what's predicted by another model that's often been cited by the White House.

Dr. Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said they've upped their August death toll for the US by about 7,000 since last week.

The change, Murray says, comes from both longer peaks experienced by states and signs that states are becoming more active again.

Some businesses in South Carolina, Alaska and Oklahoma reopened last week. Restaurants in Tennessee opened with restrictions this week while retails outlets will open at 50% capacity Wednesday.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced all retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters, malls, museums, and libraries will be allowed to reopen Friday but must remain at 25% capacity.

Airlines will provide masks

Since officials have now recommended Americans wear face masks in public to prevent further spread, some airlines say they'll provide the masks for passengers.

American Airlines and United Airlines both said they'll be providing masks for passengers beginning in May.

"We are not mandating that passengers wear a mask however we strongly encourage travelers follow CDC guidance to wear a face covering when social distancing is difficult," United Airlines spokesperson Nicole Carriere told CNN. "By providing the masks, we're making it that much easier for them to do so."

Meanwhile, in three major New York City area airports, terminal access will be restricted to ticketed passengers, airport employees and others who need to enter the airport for business, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey announced Tuesday.

The measure will be enforced at John F. Kennedy Airport, LaGuardia Airport and Newark Liberty Airport.

"Due to Covid-19 related shifts in flight and passenger activity, changes in the airports' operational footprints, security, cleaning and maintenance protocols, and social distancing directives, the Port Authority will temporarily limit terminal access at the region's three major airports," the Port Authority said in a statement.

CORRECTION: This story has been updated to correct the description of Anthony Fauci's medical expertise.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 49063

Reported Deaths: 2732
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion11760689
Lake5276246
Elkhart340255
Allen2835133
St. Joseph200169
Cass16429
Hamilton1608101
Hendricks1425100
Johnson1296118
Porter76738
Tippecanoe7359
Clark66844
Madison66764
Bartholomew59145
Vanderburgh5876
LaPorte58326
Howard58058
Kosciusko5624
Marshall5016
Noble48528
LaGrange4779
Jackson4733
Boone45443
Delaware45252
Hancock45236
Shelby43125
Floyd38444
Morgan32731
Monroe30928
Montgomery29720
Grant29626
Clinton2902
Dubois2886
Henry28216
White26610
Decatur25432
Lawrence24825
Dearborn23823
Vigo2388
Warrick22729
Harrison21622
Greene19032
Miami1862
Jennings17712
Putnam1708
DeKalb1634
Scott1628
Daviess14817
Wayne1436
Orange13623
Perry1359
Steuben1302
Franklin1268
Ripley1247
Jasper1232
Wabash1142
Carroll1102
Fayette1037
Newton9910
Gibson982
Whitley975
Starke943
Randolph804
Huntington782
Jefferson762
Wells751
Fulton721
Jay680
Washington671
Pulaski661
Knox640
Clay604
Rush583
Owen501
Adams491
Benton480
Posey450
Sullivan451
Spencer441
Brown421
Blackford392
Crawford320
Fountain322
Tipton311
Switzerland280
Parke240
Martin220
Ohio180
Vermillion140
Warren141
Union130
Pike110
Unassigned0193

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 60181

Reported Deaths: 2991
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Franklin10879439
Cuyahoga8277383
Hamilton6287206
Lucas2836303
Marion273639
Summit2241207
Pickaway220541
Montgomery220131
Mahoning1861239
Butler167447
Columbiana130960
Stark1156113
Lorain106468
Trumbull99774
Warren89525
Clark7809
Delaware61715
Fairfield60517
Tuscarawas58510
Belmont55522
Medina54332
Lake52920
Licking52012
Miami47531
Portage46159
Wood45251
Ashtabula43744
Clermont4317
Geauga41443
Wayne36552
Richland3515
Allen32841
Mercer2909
Greene2879
Darke25326
Erie25022
Holmes2453
Huron2282
Madison2029
Ottawa16024
Washington14020
Sandusky13814
Crawford1365
Putnam13215
Ross1323
Coshocton1302
Hardin12312
Morrow1181
Auglaize1074
Jefferson922
Union921
Monroe8917
Muskingum891
Hancock831
Preble801
Athens791
Hocking798
Guernsey763
Lawrence740
Williams722
Shelby704
Clinton680
Logan651
Fulton630
Ashland621
Carroll603
Wyandot605
Brown591
Scioto540
Defiance533
Knox531
Fayette480
Highland461
Champaign441
Van Wert420
Perry371
Seneca352
Henry320
Jackson260
Paulding260
Adams241
Pike240
Vinton222
Gallia201
Harrison121
Meigs120
Morgan110
Noble110
Unassigned00
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