The US is starting to see 'glimmers' that social distancing could be slowing the spread of coronavirus -- but there's more to do, officials say

Nurse practitioner Elyse Isopo says that in the 20 years she's been working in a New York ICU, she has never seen things as bad as they are now with the coronavirus.

Posted: Mar 31, 2020 6:51 PM
Updated: Mar 31, 2020 6:51 PM

Early clues -- in places like New York, California and Seattle -- indicate social distancing may be slowing the rate at which coronavirus cases otherwise would have increased in the United States.

But health officials warn it's too early to know how well it's working -- and even if mitigation measures continue, the number of US deaths still could be hard to take.

"We're starting to see glimmers that (social distancing) is actually having some dampening effect" on the spread of coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN on Tuesday morning.

"We hope ... that we may start seeing a turnaround, but we haven't seen it yet," he said.

Cases and deaths are soaring: At least 3,561 people have died in the United States -- more than 770 of which were reported Tuesday alone. More than 178,000 coronavirus cases have been reported in the country.

There are, however, signs that rates of case increases may have been slowed in some places. It's too early to pinpoint why, though the signs have come after federal and state officials urged people to stay at home or avoid crowds:

• New York has by far the most US cases (75,700+) and deaths (1,500+). But the state's average of day-over-day case increases for the past seven days was 17%, compared to 58% for the previous seven-day period, a CNN analysis shows.

• In Northern California, "the surge we have been anticipating has not yet come," Dr. Jahan Fahimi, medical director at the University of California San Francisco Health, told CNN. San Francisco issued the country's first shelter-in-place order two weeks ago, and officials hope it is paying off. That hope has not necessarily reached Los Angeles County, where hospitals are seeing a steady patient increase.

• In Washington state's King County, two new reports from an institute that specializes in studying disease transmission dynamics showed social distancing measures appeared to be making a difference.

Still, even if all states mandate social distancing within the next week, and then maintained this through May, some 82,000 people in the US could die from coronavirus by August, University of Washington health metrics sciences professor Christopher Murray told CNN on Tuesday, citing his modeling.

The model estimates that more than 2,000 people could die each day in the United States in mid-April, when the virus is predicted to hit the country hardest.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator, has said worst-case projections show "between 1.6 million and 2.2 million deaths if you do nothing."

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the United States would extend its set of social distancing guidelines for 30 days.

Doctors and health officials still are pleading for people to stay home, to slow the disease's spread and dampen the rush at hospitals in hot spot cities, where physicians are running low on supplies to protect themselves and equipment to support patients.

"We don't have a magic bullet (treatment) for this disease, so the best thing we can do is prevent infection," and therefore we must continue to generally stay at home, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, chief of infectious disease at Massachusetts General Hospital, told CNN Tuesday.

New Orleans hospitals may run out of ventilators by the weekend, Collin Arnold, director of the New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, told CNN.

"Staying at home and isolating is the way to beat this," he said Tuesday.

Your coronavirus questions, answered

Economic consequences

Signs continue to emerge that the pandemic is posing huge challenges to the US economy.

Food banks across the nation are struggling. Millions of newly unemployed people mean the food banks are seeing a flood of new clients, just as supplies start to dwindle because of growing demand from consumers stuck at home.

The investment bank Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, predicts the unemployment rate rising to 15% by the middle of the year.

'Stay at home, buy us time'

In parts of the country, walking into work feels like walking into a war zone for many medical care workers.

"There is not enough of anything," one trauma physician at Miami's Jackson Memorial Hospital said. "There are just so many patients who are so sick, it seems impossible to keep up with the demand."

Inside New York City's Elmhurst hospital, one doctor told CNN "we are at the brink of not being able to care for patients."

It may seem simple, another doctor says, but staying at home could also be saving those working to save patients.

"It feels like coronavirus is everywhere and it feels like we have very little to protect ourselves from getting very sick ourselves as healthcare workers," Dr. Cornelia Griggs, a pediatric surgery fellow at Columbia University, said Monday. "I want everyone at home to know that even though it seems like staying at home is futile, it's not."

"We need everyone at home to hold the line, stay at home. Buy us time, flatten the curve."

The city's police and fire personnel are struggling, too.

At the New York Police Department, 1,193 employees -- 1,048 uniformed officers and 145 civilian workers -- had tested positive for coronavirus by Tuesday morning, a law enforcement source told CNN. More than 5,600 members of the department -- about 15% of the force -- were out sick Tuesday, according to the source.

New York City Fire Department paramedic Madelyn Higueros, who works in the area near Elmhurst hospital, said her shifts have been extra hectic, responding to call after call from people with flu-like symptoms.

Her husband, also a city paramedic, has tested positive for coronavirus and is self-isolating away from the family. She doesn't have symptoms.

"Most of the station is out with symptoms," she said. "The ones that are still working, we're so tired. ... We're working over 16 hours a day."

The city fire department had 282 members test positive for coronavirus, spokesman Jim Long said Tuesday.

States clamp down

More than two dozen governors have stepped up to combat the spread of the virus, issuing stay-at-home orders that now cover more than three-fourths of the American population -- and authorities have begun cracking down on those who refuse to abide.

In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear also issued an executive order Monday barring residents from traveling to other states -- with just a handful of exceptions -- and directing those who are returning to Kentucky from another state to self-quarantine for two weeks.

"Right now we have more cases in other states," he said. "What it means is your likelihood of getting infected and potentially bringing back the coronavirus may be greater in other states than ours. You need to be home anyways."

In North Dakota, residents coming back from any of the 24 states the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have classified as having "widespread disease" are also required to quarantine for two weeks. Those states include California, New York, Illinois and Georgia.

Those not following orders to stay at home and keep a distance have begun facing consequences.

A popular Florida pastor was arrested Monday for continuing to hold large services and charged with unlawful assembly and violation of public health emergency rules, both second-degree misdemeanors.

"Last night I made a decision to seek an arrest warrant for the pastor of a local church who intentionally, and repeatedly, chose to disregard the orders set in place by our president, our governor, the CDC and the Hillsborough County Emergency policy group," Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister said.

"His reckless disregard for human life put hundreds of people in his congregation at risk, and thousands of residents who may interact with them this week in danger," he added.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 726600

Reported Deaths: 13379
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion992781737
Lake53359964
Allen40387675
St. Joseph35449550
Hamilton35440408
Elkhart28376439
Tippecanoe22336217
Vanderburgh22271396
Porter18637306
Johnson17876377
Hendricks17154314
Clark12919191
Madison12574339
Vigo12426245
Monroe11845169
LaPorte11773210
Delaware10615185
Howard9859215
Kosciusko9366117
Hancock8239140
Bartholomew8042155
Warrick7766155
Floyd7645177
Grant7019174
Wayne7018199
Boone6669101
Morgan6547139
Dubois6148117
Marshall6000111
Dearborn578577
Cass5780105
Henry5681102
Noble558283
Jackson500472
Shelby489496
Lawrence4492120
Gibson434391
Harrison434271
Clinton426853
DeKalb425284
Montgomery423388
Whitley394439
Huntington387480
Steuben382957
Miami380266
Knox371890
Jasper362747
Putnam358560
Wabash353178
Adams340654
Ripley338970
Jefferson328881
White312854
Daviess295899
Wells290481
Decatur283592
Fayette278662
Greene276685
Posey270933
LaGrange264770
Scott264753
Clay259245
Randolph239781
Washington239532
Spencer231331
Jennings229248
Starke214452
Fountain211946
Sullivan211042
Owen197056
Fulton194640
Jay191830
Carroll188120
Perry182637
Orange182454
Rush172925
Vermillion168343
Franklin167735
Tipton162345
Parke145916
Blackford134532
Pike133034
Pulaski116045
Newton107034
Brown101541
Crawford99114
Benton98414
Martin87815
Warren81415
Switzerland7848
Union70710
Ohio56211
Unassigned0413

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1080121

Reported Deaths: 19344
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin1254981392
Cuyahoga1115202107
Hamilton798171200
Montgomery512711012
Summit46997933
Lucas41982782
Butler38273580
Stark32190907
Lorain24910480
Warren24249297
Mahoning21474586
Lake20586368
Clermont19727238
Delaware18496131
Licking16396210
Fairfield16144199
Trumbull15996466
Medina15233262
Greene15027244
Clark13960297
Wood13056188
Portage12806201
Allen11609231
Richland11308198
Miami10659215
Muskingum8795132
Wayne8777210
Columbiana8756229
Pickaway8547121
Marion8511135
Tuscarawas8467243
Erie7859154
Hancock6900126
Ross6835152
Ashtabula6777169
Geauga6665148
Scioto6398101
Belmont5856167
Union570047
Lawrence5542102
Jefferson5511151
Huron5422119
Darke5344122
Sandusky5330120
Seneca5268121
Athens518258
Washington5148109
Auglaize488484
Mercer480185
Shelby468593
Knox4479110
Madison435461
Putnam4268100
Ashland421289
Fulton420969
Defiance418997
Crawford3965106
Brown392957
Logan381176
Preble379098
Clinton370561
Ottawa366279
Highland353861
Williams338075
Champaign330458
Guernsey315453
Jackson312051
Perry294550
Morrow283839
Fayette281449
Hardin270364
Henry268166
Coshocton264258
Holmes2590101
Van Wert242863
Pike237433
Adams237052
Gallia235048
Wyandot230654
Hocking215162
Carroll191247
Paulding172440
Meigs144639
Noble133337
Monroe131942
Morgan108323
Harrison107537
Vinton82415
Unassigned02
Fort Wayne
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Angola
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43° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 39°
Huntington
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Hi: 60° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 46°
Decatur
Partly Cloudy
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Hi: 60° Lo: 37°
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Van Wert
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We'll start Friday off dry, but the chance of rain returns. Scattered showers will be possible by late morning until the evening.
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