How 2018 midterms compare to past elections

CNN's John Avlon compares the 2018 midterm election projections to past midterm results and trends.

Posted: Nov 7, 2018 6:15 PM
Updated: Nov 7, 2018 6:30 PM

Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump's job as President, according to preliminary CNN exit polls. The results match his approval in recent public opinion polls, which have shown him to be under water nationally for months.

But there's much more to the story. In nearly every state with a key contested Senate or governor's race, he has a positive approval and is over 50%, according to CNN's preliminary exit poll data.

That wide difference in Trump's national vs. his key state approval helps explain the dual storyline emerging on election night of Democratic pickups giving them control of the US House and Republican success holding control of the US Senate by picking off Democratic senators representing states Trump won in 2016.

His highest approval of these states is West Virginia, oddly enough, where slightly more than three-in-five approve of the job he's doing as President, but Democrat Joe Manchin was able to keep his seat.

The exceptions to Trump's key state approval come in Nevada, Wisconsin and Texas, where his approval is slightly under 50% and more closely mirrors the national view.

In Arizona, where Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally are locked in a dead heat, Trump's approval is 52%, with 47% who disapprove.

More than half of Florida voters, 51%, approve of the job Trump is doing as President, compared to 48% who do not. Both Republicans Rick Scott in the Senate race and Ron DeSantis in the governor's race hold leads in Florida.

In fact, Trump's 51% approval in 2018 Florida exit polls is an improvement over the 49% of the vote he received in 2016 votes in Florida.

Trump is over 50% in Georgia as well, a state he won with 51% of the vote in 2016. There is no Senate race this year, but where the Secretary of State Brian Kemp leads Georgia state legislator Stacey Abrams.

He is more popular in Indiana, where 53% of voters approved and 47% disapprove, according to the exit poll data. In that state, Republican Mike Braun was declared as the winner over Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. Trump's 53% approval in Indiana underperforms his more than 57% support there in 2016.

Missouri is extremely close for the President, where 51% approve and 48% disapprove and Republican Josh Hawley holds a commanding lead over incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill. Ohio is around the same as Missouri, 51% approval in the state. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is projected to keep his seat there, but Republican Mike DeWine holds a lead over Democrat Richard Cordray there.

Tennessee is one of the two states in this category where Trump's approval is a net positive above 10 percentage points. Around 57% said they approve of the job he's doing, fitting with the positive news for Republicans as CNN predicts Republican Marsha Blackburn will take a US Senate seat.

Where Trump is under water

Trump is under 50% approval in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz eked out a victory over Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Trump won Texas with more than 52% of the vote in 2016. Cruz got more than 56% of the vote in 2012.

Wisconsin is one of the worst states for the President. Only 45% approve and 54% disapprove, an 11-point net negative for the President. Democrat Tammy Baldwin easily held her seat there and Republican Gov. Scott Walker trails in his bid to be re-elected as governor.

In states without super competitive races, Trump's approval tends to be either much higher or much lower. In California, only a third of voters in 2018 approve of the job he's doing as President, while his approval in North Dakota is 61%. Other super negatives for the President include New Jersey, New York (-21 in both), Virginia (-13), Michigan (-9) and Pennsylvania (-10). His other very positive state is Mississippi (+15). Minnesota and Montana are close, with a less than five percent gap between approval and disapproval.

Note: Data current as of 11:45 p.m. ET

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 147582

Reported Deaths: 3937
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion24410780
Lake12911350
St. Joseph8651154
Elkhart8281130
Allen7756221
Hamilton5872113
Vanderburgh547750
Tippecanoe346414
Monroe316238
Hendricks3116130
Johnson2947127
Porter288948
Clark280857
Delaware277174
Vigo245534
Madison224587
Cass220120
LaPorte208853
Warrick185362
Floyd170865
Kosciusko169221
Howard155366
Bartholomew137557
Dubois133423
Marshall129826
Henry120728
Boone117748
Grant116839
Wayne114923
Hancock112844
Noble110033
Jackson106412
Morgan90840
Dearborn89528
Daviess82732
Gibson8229
Clinton80116
Shelby76929
Lawrence76732
LaGrange76114
Harrison72924
Putnam69415
Knox68610
DeKalb67411
Posey6695
Steuben5798
Miami5655
Montgomery55722
Fayette55615
White55615
Jasper5264
Greene50537
Scott50313
Decatur49339
Adams4555
Clay4266
Whitley4246
Ripley4138
Sullivan40612
Wells4045
Orange38124
Starke3787
Wabash3769
Spencer3656
Huntington3645
Franklin35925
Jennings35813
Washington3452
Randolph3318
Jefferson3275
Fulton3232
Pike31512
Carroll30513
Perry28214
Jay2756
Fountain2733
Tipton26123
Parke2152
Newton20511
Vermillion2031
Owen1991
Rush1984
Martin1930
Blackford1843
Crawford1401
Pulaski1401
Brown1283
Ohio1167
Benton1060
Union1010
Switzerland840
Warren721
Unassigned0233

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 181787

Reported Deaths: 5067
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Franklin30590635
Cuyahoga19212671
Hamilton15890338
Montgomery9883184
Lucas8058370
Butler7856122
Summit6406260
Warren393360
Stark3605178
Mahoning3567283
Marion332149
Pickaway294646
Delaware275927
Lorain262389
Fairfield254156
Licking241065
Wood240181
Clark231654
Clermont225936
Trumbull2174134
Greene210840
Columbiana207887
Allen195873
Miami191056
Lake184757
Medina175542
Portage153067
Mercer143327
Ross130533
Wayne125968
Richland125724
Tuscarawas117822
Athens11452
Erie111453
Darke108850
Madison101314
Hancock97520
Auglaize92716
Lawrence88524
Putnam86127
Shelby85014
Geauga81950
Muskingum8174
Scioto7709
Belmont76827
Union7203
Ashtabula71348
Huron6909
Sandusky69022
Seneca57614
Preble57417
Ottawa55930
Holmes53710
Fulton4726
Henry44217
Jefferson4384
Defiance43713
Clinton42013
Jackson4197
Fayette4188
Crawford4088
Logan3923
Champaign3783
Highland3714
Ashland3705
Brown3583
Knox35215
Perry35011
Washington32423
Morrow3222
Williams3124
Hardin30913
Coshocton28612
Pike2780
Wyandot27813
Gallia27413
Guernsey2688
Van Wert2153
Meigs20512
Adams1936
Hocking1899
Carroll1887
Paulding1791
Monroe14118
Noble1120
Vinton853
Harrison763
Morgan690
Unassigned00
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