How 2018 midterms compare to past elections

CNN's John Avlon compares the 2018 midterm election projections to past midterm results and trends.

Posted: Nov 7, 2018 6:15 PM
Updated: Nov 7, 2018 6:30 PM

Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump's job as President, according to preliminary CNN exit polls. The results match his approval in recent public opinion polls, which have shown him to be under water nationally for months.

But there's much more to the story. In nearly every state with a key contested Senate or governor's race, he has a positive approval and is over 50%, according to CNN's preliminary exit poll data.

That wide difference in Trump's national vs. his key state approval helps explain the dual storyline emerging on election night of Democratic pickups giving them control of the US House and Republican success holding control of the US Senate by picking off Democratic senators representing states Trump won in 2016.

His highest approval of these states is West Virginia, oddly enough, where slightly more than three-in-five approve of the job he's doing as President, but Democrat Joe Manchin was able to keep his seat.

The exceptions to Trump's key state approval come in Nevada, Wisconsin and Texas, where his approval is slightly under 50% and more closely mirrors the national view.

In Arizona, where Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally are locked in a dead heat, Trump's approval is 52%, with 47% who disapprove.

More than half of Florida voters, 51%, approve of the job Trump is doing as President, compared to 48% who do not. Both Republicans Rick Scott in the Senate race and Ron DeSantis in the governor's race hold leads in Florida.

In fact, Trump's 51% approval in 2018 Florida exit polls is an improvement over the 49% of the vote he received in 2016 votes in Florida.

Trump is over 50% in Georgia as well, a state he won with 51% of the vote in 2016. There is no Senate race this year, but where the Secretary of State Brian Kemp leads Georgia state legislator Stacey Abrams.

He is more popular in Indiana, where 53% of voters approved and 47% disapprove, according to the exit poll data. In that state, Republican Mike Braun was declared as the winner over Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. Trump's 53% approval in Indiana underperforms his more than 57% support there in 2016.

Missouri is extremely close for the President, where 51% approve and 48% disapprove and Republican Josh Hawley holds a commanding lead over incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill. Ohio is around the same as Missouri, 51% approval in the state. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is projected to keep his seat there, but Republican Mike DeWine holds a lead over Democrat Richard Cordray there.

Tennessee is one of the two states in this category where Trump's approval is a net positive above 10 percentage points. Around 57% said they approve of the job he's doing, fitting with the positive news for Republicans as CNN predicts Republican Marsha Blackburn will take a US Senate seat.

Where Trump is under water

Trump is under 50% approval in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz eked out a victory over Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Trump won Texas with more than 52% of the vote in 2016. Cruz got more than 56% of the vote in 2012.

Wisconsin is one of the worst states for the President. Only 45% approve and 54% disapprove, an 11-point net negative for the President. Democrat Tammy Baldwin easily held her seat there and Republican Gov. Scott Walker trails in his bid to be re-elected as governor.

In states without super competitive races, Trump's approval tends to be either much higher or much lower. In California, only a third of voters in 2018 approve of the job he's doing as President, while his approval in North Dakota is 61%. Other super negatives for the President include New Jersey, New York (-21 in both), Virginia (-13), Michigan (-9) and Pennsylvania (-10). His other very positive state is Mississippi (+15). Minnesota and Montana are close, with a less than five percent gap between approval and disapproval.

Note: Data current as of 11:45 p.m. ET

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1084488

Reported Deaths: 17386
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1425562217
Lake705171220
Allen64347862
Hamilton49481481
St. Joseph48135639
Elkhart39011536
Vanderburgh33874494
Tippecanoe29863271
Johnson26876463
Hendricks25548379
Porter24683380
Madison20440444
Clark19785275
Vigo18609308
LaPorte16638260
Monroe16237217
Delaware16230286
Howard16181310
Kosciusko13763162
Hancock12644184
Bartholomew12544188
Warrick11889189
Wayne11794264
Floyd11792225
Grant11484233
Morgan10134188
Boone9576120
Noble8921121
Henry8917163
Marshall8792146
Dearborn875798
Dubois8673138
Shelby7958127
Cass7907126
Lawrence7861182
DeKalb7416106
Jackson738093
Huntington7280107
Gibson6922118
Montgomery6830122
Harrison680696
Knox6779113
Steuben641185
Miami6384106
Whitley631160
Putnam626582
Clinton614176
Wabash5958108
Jasper591991
Jefferson5617102
Ripley540892
Adams527881
Daviess4964116
Scott475978
Wells462998
White459967
Greene458399
Clay452162
Decatur4491109
Jennings434666
Fayette429094
LaGrange413890
Posey398344
Washington380654
Randolph3770107
Fountain364962
Spencer353446
Fulton352270
Starke343672
Sullivan342454
Owen341676
Orange320270
Jay315450
Rush293332
Carroll287037
Franklin283544
Perry281453
Vermillion277557
Parke244930
Tipton244664
Pike241744
Blackford213944
Pulaski203158
Newton176552
Brown169850
Crawford167129
Benton160517
Martin149219
Switzerland143712
Warren131416
Union115416
Ohio90513
Unassigned0581

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1673496

Reported Deaths: 26483
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin1757641826
Cuyahoga1629012636
Hamilton1118741528
Montgomery791421387
Summit697231199
Lucas615331017
Butler55597803
Stark521611170
Lorain40661639
Warren35239412
Mahoning34821769
Lake31171493
Clermont30541362
Delaware26553182
Trumbull26366611
Licking26095335
Medina25072351
Fairfield24063287
Greene23957369
Clark21542387
Portage20538280
Richland20465336
Wood19524246
Allen18427320
Miami16950348
Columbiana16385331
Muskingum16346206
Wayne15351304
Tuscarawas14018357
Marion12978194
Erie12350198
Ashtabula12171225
Scioto12166182
Pickaway12009151
Ross11417223
Hancock11151173
Geauga10572174
Lawrence10433171
Belmont10200231
Huron9545155
Jefferson9425225
Union933375
Sandusky8981166
Seneca8639156
Knox8591169
Washington8578156
Athens825096
Darke8215179
Ashland7777147
Auglaize7695115
Shelby7302132
Defiance7174114
Brown7015115
Crawford7010150
Fulton6953111
Logan6818108
Mercer679397
Guernsey677983
Highland6591117
Madison639289
Clinton6361106
Williams623498
Preble6153139
Putnam6054120
Jackson569496
Champaign564786
Perry557179
Coshocton5525103
Ottawa549599
Morrow504464
Fayette481270
Hardin475399
Gallia460278
Pike457876
Van Wert451591
Adams4495109
Henry422776
Hocking398093
Holmes3917137
Wyandot366673
Carroll348978
Paulding317449
Meigs300957
Monroe230860
Noble216147
Morgan208938
Harrison204052
Vinton182037
Unassigned05
Fort Wayne
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Hi: 38° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 29°
Angola
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Feels Like: 28°
Huntington
Cloudy
35° wxIcon
Hi: 37° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 29°
Decatur
Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 38° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 29°
Van Wert
Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 38° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 30°
Windy conditions are on tap for Sunday with highs back in the 30s.
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