Poll: 6 House races move toward Democrats

Heading into Election Day, six House races have shifted -- all in favor of the Democrats. CNN's John King breaks down the new numbers and highlights which districts to watch.

Posted: Nov 5, 2018 12:52 PM
Updated: Nov 5, 2018 1:14 PM

The first $5 billion election is almost in the books.

Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, are voicing confidence the party "will" take back control of the chamber.

My colleague Harry Enten said it best: The fundamentals of the midterm elections haven't changed.

The generic ballot advantage, enthusiasm edge and President Trump's underwater approval rating are facts that all work in the Democrats' favor. Mix in the staggering fundraising numbers seen this cycle and it adds up to an environment ripe for strong Democratic gains.

In the final update to CNN's Key Race ratings, we are moving six contests -- all in favor of the Democrats.

Heading into Election Day -- now just three days away -- 15 seats held or vacated by Republicans are leaning, likely or solid for Democrats. Winning all of those races would put Democrats eight seats shy of the 23 the party needs to gain to win control of the House.

Of the 31 races CNN now rates as Tossups, only one is currently held by Democrats. If Democrats win a third of those, then they'll find themselves in the majority with a couple seats to spare. Republicans are favored to pick up two Democratic-held seats, which would add to the challenge for Democrats on Election Night.

To the races:

FL-06: Democrat Nancy Soderberg, a former ambassador and National Security Council official, has outraised Republican Michael Waltz, an Army veteran and small business owner in the race to replace former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis, who is running for governor. Trump won this Daytona Beach district by 16 points. The vast majority of the roughly $3.7 million being spent on TV in this district in the final week is coming from Soderberg and her allies -- including $2.4 million from Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

GA-07: This is another contest where Democrats hold a significant resource advantage. Four-term GOP Rep. Rob Woodall hasn't run any TV ads, based on data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG. His Democratic challenger, Carolyn Bourdeaux, has spent about $150,000 -- and has been backed in the final weeks with nearly $1 million from Independence USA PAC. Trump won this majority-minority district in the Atlanta suburbs with 51% -- down from Mitt Romney's 60% in 2012.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

KS-03: Democrat Sharice Davids appears poised to flip this suburban Kansas City district that went narrowly for Clinton two years ago. The National Republican Congressional Committee last month canceled $1 million in planned TV spending to support GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder, though the Congressional Leadership Fund has remained engaged in the race. Overall spending in the final week favors Democrats, with Davids outpacing Yoder $445,000 to $364,000 head-to-head, while Independence USA PAC, the DCCC and House Majority PAC combined are chipping in more than $600,000 to benefit the Democratic challenger.

Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic

SC-01: The National Republican Congressional Committee invested in this race late, looking to avoid a surprise upset in a district Trump won by 14 points. Democrat Joe Cunningham, an engineer and attorney, has outraised Republican Katie Arrington, and spent three times more on TV. Cunningham has tried to make Arrington's shifting stances on offshore drilling a key issue in this Lowcountry district.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

TX-32: This race between GOP Rep. Pete Sessions and Democrat Colin Allred is expected to draw nearly $5 million in TV ads in the last week of the campaign, per Kantar Media/CMAG. Part of that is a late $1.4 million infusion from Independence USA PAC aimed at lifting Allred. This suburban Dallas district backed Clinton by two points after giving Mitt Romney a 15-point victory in 2012.

Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

UT-04: GOP Rep. Mia Love won her 2014 race by four points in a good year for Republicans. This year she's facing a strong challenge from Democrat Ben McAdams, the mayor of Salt Lake County, which accounts for roughly 85% of the district. A New York Times/Siena poll found McAdams and Love deadlocked at 45% a piece. While McAdams has outspent Love on TV, the GOP incumbent has been backed by more than $1 million in ads from CLF.

Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 312521

Reported Deaths: 5498
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion42641849
Lake27152455
Allen18010298
Elkhart17177221
St. Joseph16799229
Hamilton13011167
Vanderburgh9751120
Tippecanoe858727
Porter827986
Johnson6389165
Hendricks6098157
Vigo608384
Monroe536750
Clark515077
Madison5060122
Delaware4905103
LaPorte465595
Kosciusko462339
Howard344277
Warrick325672
Bartholomew316863
Floyd316277
Wayne307770
Cass299931
Marshall299144
Grant272550
Noble255046
Hancock253852
Henry247537
Boone244554
Dubois237931
Dearborn219030
Jackson215534
Morgan210843
Knox187819
Gibson186925
Shelby182155
Clinton180321
DeKalb177831
Lawrence177648
Adams168222
Miami162614
Wabash162521
Daviess156443
Fayette149234
Steuben147113
Jasper144412
Harrison142924
LaGrange142630
Montgomery142127
Whitley137114
Ripley132115
Huntington127410
Decatur126143
Putnam124627
Randolph124519
Wells124429
White123222
Clay122523
Posey122116
Jefferson118816
Scott109020
Greene102653
Jay99013
Sullivan96416
Starke92021
Jennings85314
Fulton84518
Spencer8378
Perry82521
Fountain7798
Washington7527
Franklin69927
Carroll68613
Orange67328
Vermillion6243
Owen6087
Tipton57627
Parke5706
Newton56312
Rush5438
Blackford53412
Pike50919
Pulaski39515
Martin3585
Brown3424
Benton3402
Crawford2941
Union2702
Switzerland2575
Warren2382
Ohio2317
Unassigned0266

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 382743

Reported Deaths: 6274
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin51161671
Cuyahoga37222743
Hamilton30493372
Montgomery20518236
Butler15199148
Lucas14566417
Summit13933327
Stark9193206
Warren841976
Mahoning7530300
Lake710067
Lorain6690106
Clermont593651
Delaware572537
Licking564577
Trumbull5584147
Fairfield554464
Greene538066
Clark5218101
Allen494989
Marion476759
Medina471657
Wood4598107
Miami437568
Pickaway404048
Portage358972
Columbiana357698
Tuscarawas342667
Richland328539
Wayne327394
Mercer296047
Muskingum252510
Hancock245940
Ross244559
Auglaize236435
Darke232560
Erie230268
Putnam229449
Ashtabula228354
Geauga211851
Scioto200616
Union19668
Shelby194017
Lawrence193039
Athens19134
Seneca182919
Belmont170229
Madison163119
Sandusky157729
Preble156521
Huron155519
Defiance144823
Holmes140439
Logan133517
Knox131718
Fulton128726
Jefferson128613
Crawford126817
Washington125227
Ottawa124530
Clinton109115
Williams10799
Ashland107825
Highland103718
Brown10135
Henry101323
Hardin99719
Champaign9825
Van Wert97318
Jackson96212
Fayette92717
Morrow9202
Guernsey89314
Coshocton85215
Perry82912
Adams80313
Pike7661
Gallia76513
Wyandot73217
Paulding66511
Hocking64516
Noble62224
Carroll48810
Meigs39612
Monroe32321
Morgan2685
Vinton2246
Harrison2193
Unassigned00
Fort Wayne
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 41°
Angola
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 39°
Huntington
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 40°
Decatur
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 41°
Van Wert
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 41°
Cloudy Thanksgiving
WFFT Radar
WFFT Temperatures
WFFT National

Community Events