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CNN Key Races: Six races move toward Democrats as battle for control of the House enters the home stretch

The first $5 billi...

Posted: Nov 5, 2018 2:31 AM
Updated: Nov 5, 2018 2:31 AM

The first $5 billion election is almost in the books.

Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, are voicing confidence the party "will" take back control of the chamber.

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My colleague Harry Enten said it best: The fundamentals of the midterm elections haven't changed.

The generic ballot advantage, enthusiasm edge and President Trump's underwater approval rating are facts that all work in the Democrats' favor. Mix in the staggering fundraising numbers seen this cycle and it adds up to an environment ripe for strong Democratic gains.

In the final update to CNN's Key Race ratings, we are moving six contests -- all in favor of the Democrats.

Heading into Election Day -- now just three days away -- 15 seats held or vacated by Republicans are leaning, likely or solid for Democrats. Winning all of those races would put Democrats eight seats shy of the 23 the party needs to gain to win control of the House.

Of the 31 races CNN now rates as Tossups, only one is currently held by Democrats. If Democrats win a third of those, then they'll find themselves in the majority with a couple seats to spare. Republicans are favored to pick up two Democratic-held seats, which would add to the challenge for Democrats on Election Night.

To the races:

FL-06: Democrat Nancy Soderberg, a former ambassador and National Security Council official, has outraised Republican Michael Waltz, an Army veteran and small business owner in the race to replace former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis, who is running for governor. Trump won this Daytona Beach district by 16 points. The vast majority of the roughly $3.7 million being spent on TV in this district in the final week is coming from Soderberg and her allies -- including $2.4 million from Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

GA-07: This is another contest where Democrats hold a significant resource advantage. Four-term GOP Rep. Rob Woodall hasn't run any TV ads, based on data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG. His Democratic challenger, Carolyn Bourdeaux, has spent about $150,000 -- and has been backed in the final weeks with nearly $1 million from Independence USA PAC. Trump won this majority-minority district in the Atlanta suburbs with 51% -- down from Mitt Romney's 60% in 2012.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

KS-03: Democrat Sharice Davids appears poised to flip this suburban Kansas City district that went narrowly for Clinton two years ago. The National Republican Congressional Committee last month canceled $1 million in planned TV spending to support GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder, though the Congressional Leadership Fund has remained engaged in the race. Overall spending in the final week favors Democrats, with Davids outpacing Yoder $445,000 to $364,000 head-to-head, while Independence USA PAC, the DCCC and House Majority PAC combined are chipping in more than $600,000 to benefit the Democratic challenger.

Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic

SC-01: The National Republican Congressional Committee invested in this race late, looking to avoid a surprise upset in a district Trump won by 14 points. Democrat Joe Cunningham, an engineer and attorney, has outraised Republican Katie Arrington, and spent three times more on TV. Cunningham has tried to make Arrington's shifting stances on offshore drilling a key issue in this Lowcountry district.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

TX-32: This race between GOP Rep. Pete Sessions and Democrat Colin Allred is expected to draw nearly $5 million in TV ads in the last week of the campaign, per Kantar Media/CMAG. Part of that is a late $1.4 million infusion from Independence USA PAC aimed at lifting Allred. This suburban Dallas district backed Clinton by two points after giving Mitt Romney a 15-point victory in 2012.

Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

UT-04: GOP Rep. Mia Love won her 2014 race by four points in a good year for Republicans. This year she's facing a strong challenge from Democrat Ben McAdams, the mayor of Salt Lake County, which accounts for roughly 85% of the district. A New York Times/Siena poll found McAdams and Love deadlocked at 45% a piece. While McAdams has outspent Love on TV, the GOP incumbent has been backed by more than $1 million in ads from CLF.

Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 306538

Reported Deaths: 5435
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion41953849
Lake26872453
Allen17621295
Elkhart16905219
St. Joseph16524223
Hamilton12696167
Vanderburgh9552115
Tippecanoe844927
Porter813785
Johnson6231165
Vigo597979
Hendricks5944156
Monroe530349
Clark504077
Madison4858121
Delaware4820103
LaPorte457194
Kosciusko455739
Howard334975
Warrick319572
Floyd311477
Bartholomew308462
Wayne301367
Cass295831
Marshall293744
Grant262949
Noble249846
Hancock246551
Boone240254
Henry240237
Dubois234631
Dearborn215730
Jackson212633
Morgan204443
Gibson181725
Knox181419
Shelby178254
Clinton177821
Lawrence174047
DeKalb172829
Adams166422
Wabash158020
Miami157814
Daviess154643
Fayette147733
Steuben143513
Jasper142111
Harrison141824
LaGrange140129
Montgomery139027
Whitley133412
Ripley128114
Decatur124643
Huntington123510
Putnam123027
Randolph120719
Wells120428
White120321
Clay119822
Posey119616
Jefferson116216
Scott103219
Greene101353
Jay96413
Starke90621
Sullivan88916
Fulton83518
Jennings83214
Spencer8198
Perry81521
Fountain7738
Washington7417
Franklin68626
Carroll67913
Orange66628
Vermillion5993
Owen5987
Parke5606
Newton55312
Tipton55226
Rush5317
Blackford51912
Pike50318
Pulaski37710
Martin3515
Benton3362
Brown3353
Crawford2881
Union2671
Switzerland2555
Warren2382
Ohio2307
Unassigned0266

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 371840

Reported Deaths: 6100
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin50231667
Cuyahoga36047741
Hamilton29931372
Montgomery20065228
Butler14769146
Lucas14317414
Summit13388316
Stark8792197
Warren819175
Mahoning7276299
Lake682666
Lorain643499
Clermont577248
Delaware556436
Licking549276
Fairfield538464
Trumbull5305147
Greene522364
Clark511464
Allen465485
Marion465251
Wood4491107
Medina447756
Miami425867
Pickaway399348
Columbiana347297
Portage344872
Tuscarawas328658
Wayne318793
Richland316638
Mercer289945
Hancock241337
Ross240759
Muskingum240210
Auglaize231031
Putnam224749
Erie224266
Darke223559
Ashtabula223253
Geauga203351
Scioto195915
Union19118
Shelby190615
Lawrence189438
Athens18864
Seneca180018
Belmont164929
Madison158918
Sandusky154229
Preble152621
Huron152318
Defiance139522
Holmes139139
Logan127816
Knox126318
Fulton124525
Washington121927
Crawford121516
Ottawa121130
Clinton106714
Williams10579
Ashland105222
Highland101317
Jefferson10124
Henry100023
Brown9925
Champaign9475
Jackson93112
Hardin91019
Fayette90317
Van Wert8976
Morrow8882
Guernsey83914
Coshocton82613
Perry78712
Adams78313
Pike7451
Gallia73513
Wyandot71216
Paulding64611
Hocking62616
Noble60223
Carroll45710
Meigs39012
Monroe31821
Morgan2575
Vinton2195
Harrison2023
Unassigned00
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