FL Dem: Trump, DeSantis scraping from bottom

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the first black candidate to win a major-party gubernatorial nomination in Florida, says he won because he gave voters something to "vote for, not against."

Posted: Aug 29, 2018 8:33 PM
Updated: Aug 29, 2018 8:36 PM

The governor's race in Florida not only says a lot about where the Democratic and Republican parties are today but could also tell us where they are headed in the future.

Republican Ron DeSantis is the Donald Trump of the 2018 Florida gubernatorial campaign. He was backed by Trump in the primary, and the endorsement helped him shoot up in the polls.

Democrat Andrew Gillum represents the ascendent wing of the Democratic Party. He's a young, black progressive in a party that is becoming more liberal, younger and more diverse. In other words, Gillum is a picture of what the Democratic presidential nominee might be like in 2020.

A win by Gillum over DeSantis would be a clear indicator that Democrats would be in a strong position in Florida headed into 2020 after Hillary Clinton lost the state to Trump in 2016.

The state hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1994. Democrats have also struggled in presidential elections since that point. Yes, they won the state a few times. Florida, though, never voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole. That is, the state continued to have a red tint to it.

On the other hand, a DeSantis win would be a sign that the Republican and Trump brand are not as weak as perhaps some thought in the state. A DeSantis win would fit with polling that has Trump's approval rating in Florida running ahead of where it is nationally.

The intrigue in this race, though, doesn't just come because it is a Democrat versus a Republican in a key swing state.

It comes from how Gillum differs from Democrats who have run in the past. Normally, you wouldn't think that a diverse candidate who represents the left flank of the party is a strong general election candidate in a state like Florida.

If Gillum wins, he'd turn that conventional wisdom on its head.

Gillum sets a contrast with Republicans in a way that many electorally unsuccessful Democrats in Florida haven't.

Democrats have mostly tried to win Florida with more moderate candidates. They literally put up former a Republican in Charlie Crist to run for governor in 2014, for example.

Gillum clearly isn't in the more moderate camp with his calls for Medicare for all. A Gillum win would put a feather in the gap of progressives like Bernie Sanders heading into 2020 who think Democrats work best with a strong left message.

Gillum stands out in other ways versus most prior Democratic candidates for statewide office in Florida. Specifically, he's a black man who made an exclusive appeal to young voters.

That sort of sounds like Barack Obama who won the Sunshine State and the presidency twice.

Clinton, though, couldn't follow through on Obama's electoral success. While Clinton lost for any number of reasons in 2016, one big cause was the lower black turnout. Perhaps that was to be expected without Obama being on the ticket. Still, it was notable. Worrisome to Democrats since 2016 is that the low turnout of black voters has continued into the 2018 cycle.

A Gillum win with higher black turnout would suggest that Democrats can raise black turnout again in 2020 as long as they have the right candidate. It doesn't have to be a black candidate, either -- Doug Jones, a white man who served as the lead prosecutor in a case against two Ku Klux Klan members responsible for the 1963 bombing of a black church, upset Roy Moore in last year's Alabama Senate election thanks to high black turnout.

A Democratic candidate who says they can deliver black votes like Gillum would have a powerful message in a primary.

Clinton also struggled mightily among younger voters. Whether you look at the exit polls or voter files, Clinton's inability to match Obama's numbers among young voters was a pivotal cause of her defeat.

Like with African-Americans, a Gillum win on the backs of young voters could be a sign that they would vote in high numbers for the right candidate in a general election. That would be music to Sanders' ears for sure.

Of course, the election could backfire on Gillum and those have a similar message to him.

If DeSantis wins, expect those Democrats who are more centrist and traditional to point to Gillum as a warning sign of what can happen when you try to win over people in a swing state with a progressive message aimed specifically at minorities and young voters. Gillum detractors could argue that Democrats would have blown their best chance at winning the governorship in a generation.

In this way, Gillum is a big bet for progressive. If he wins, he'll be a model for them. If Gillum loses, he'll be used against progressives in 2020.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 590211

Reported Deaths: 9310
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion815581297
Lake44306666
Allen31919541
Hamilton28371304
St. Joseph26766371
Elkhart24098341
Vanderburgh18643213
Tippecanoe17422121
Johnson14496284
Porter14399160
Hendricks13870241
Madison10561212
Vigo10483171
Clark10240130
Monroe9076108
Delaware8836132
LaPorte8771155
Howard7897138
Kosciusko787277
Warrick643890
Hancock638797
Bartholomew626694
Floyd6150105
Wayne5933157
Grant5818110
Dubois544372
Boone534367
Morgan516291
Marshall494184
Henry493664
Cass471760
Noble460557
Dearborn458444
Jackson414745
Shelby402179
Lawrence380575
Clinton364539
Gibson356556
DeKalb337363
Montgomery334851
Harrison328542
Knox327839
Miami309843
Steuben306340
Adams295235
Whitley294125
Wabash293045
Ripley292345
Putnam284847
Huntington283557
Jasper282433
White267538
Daviess261672
Jefferson250738
Fayette242348
Decatur242182
Greene233360
Posey232326
Wells229447
LaGrange224161
Clay217932
Scott216937
Randolph208340
Jennings192535
Sullivan189031
Spencer181917
Fountain179725
Washington177118
Starke171341
Jay162821
Owen159537
Fulton159229
Carroll152115
Orange151433
Rush149918
Perry147227
Vermillion144933
Franklin143433
Parke12908
Tipton128232
Pike113625
Blackford107522
Pulaski95237
Newton89421
Brown85530
Benton84310
Crawford7579
Martin70013
Warren6587
Switzerland6205
Union6113
Ohio4677
Unassigned0374

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 826754

Reported Deaths: 10200
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin97493705
Cuyahoga821781012
Hamilton61350439
Montgomery41700399
Summit33399726
Lucas30111597
Butler29721228
Stark24811400
Warren18917139
Lorain18086212
Mahoning16758335
Lake15365135
Clermont15160104
Delaware1382177
Licking12679132
Trumbull12401302
Fairfield1218480
Greene11631133
Medina11128165
Clark10608264
Wood9964154
Allen9511126
Portage8867105
Miami886573
Richland8790116
Marion7319113
Tuscarawas7142174
Columbiana7085124
Pickaway702850
Wayne6781164
Muskingum671242
Erie5886118
Hancock537890
Ross530287
Scioto519662
Geauga483555
Darke457589
Ashtabula439068
Lawrence432651
Union430628
Mercer424287
Sandusky421862
Seneca413555
Auglaize412759
Huron410338
Shelby410221
Jefferson403366
Belmont395640
Washington372040
Putnam364672
Athens36369
Madison339329
Knox336522
Ashland331738
Fulton325943
Defiance319278
Crawford313268
Preble311534
Brown296619
Logan292729
Ottawa282134
Clinton279043
Williams270166
Highland262418
Jackson256943
Guernsey241725
Champaign240927
Fayette225529
Morrow22294
Perry221318
Holmes218662
Henry210247
Hardin204133
Coshocton197420
Van Wert196644
Gallia190926
Wyandot190549
Adams165615
Pike164116
Hocking163423
Carroll149516
Paulding139021
Noble117840
Meigs103221
Monroe95629
Harrison8568
Morgan79128
Vinton67113
Unassigned00
Fort Wayne
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 19°
Angola
Cloudy
28° wxIcon
Hi: 29° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 19°
Huntington
Cloudy
29° wxIcon
Hi: 30° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 19°
Fort Wayne
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 30° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 20°
Lima
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 19°
Seasonal Monday
WFFT Radar
WFFT Temperatures
WFFT National

Community Events