Bolton to meet Russian counterpart in Geneva

National security adviser John Bolton will meet with his Russian counterpart in Geneva this week. CNN's Samantha Vinograd has the weekly presidential briefing.

Posted: Aug 20, 2018 5:37 PM
Updated: Aug 20, 2018 5:49 PM

Every week, I offer a glimpse of the kind of intelligence assessments that are likely to come across the desk of the President of the United States. Modeled on the President's Daily Briefing, or PDB, which the director of national intelligence prepares for the President almost daily, my Presidential Weekly Briefing focuses on the topics and issues the President needs to know to make informed decisions.

Here's this week's briefing:

Christmas came early for Putin: Clearance contagion

We assess that President Vladimir Putin views your decision to revoke former CIA Director John Brennan's clearance as an opportunity to advance his mission against the United States.

Putin is focused on sowing divisions in the United States and reactions among elected officials to your decision on Brennan's clearance have fallen mostly along partisan lines. Senior Democrats condemned your decision, while most Republicans supported you or stayed quiet. We should assume that Russia's digital and bot army will amplify these partisan divisions.

Russia's propaganda machine likes to highlight criticism of alleged US shortcomings in democracy and civil liberties. Russia will likely amplify the narrative that your decision is a dire attack on free speech and that US democratic freedoms are under attack. This helps Putin make the US-led liberal democratic order look weak and by comparison makes him feel stronger.

Putin also wants to undercut confidence in US institutions, and he probably wants to spin your decision as indicative of a widening chasm between you and the intelligence community. His team will likely spread the message that you made this decision based on your executive authority -- which is what press secretary Sarah Sanders said in her initial press briefing on the clearance revocation. Putin's minions will highlight that neither Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats nor CIA Director Gina Haspel were consulted before your final decision on Brennan's clearance, fueling the narrative that you made this decision on your own without consulting the experts. And his trolls could spread the message that this is just the latest indication you made a decision with national security implications without your key advisers.

As a bonus for Putin, a growing bipartisan group of former intelligence professionals are criticizing your decision, further supporting the idea that you and the intelligence community are divided.

Putin is also probably pleased with your Wall Street Journal interview -- in which you drew a correlation between revoking Brennan's clearance and his involvement in the "rigged Russian witch hunt." He may use this statement to push the narrative that you are assailing the free functioning of our democratic legal system by trying to silence officials who worked on Russian election interference. He'll play both sides, though, doing what he can to stoke the idea that you are trying to cover something up.

Your tweet about Brennan's mistakes while CIA director may also be used by Putin to fuel conspiracy theories about the agency, much like the deep state conspiracy theories about the FBI and its purported politicization. This helps him in his goal of undermining confidence in our democratic institutions.

China: Wargaming

We are engaged in multiple wars with China, which you referenced in your tweet when you said, "All of the fools that are so focused on looking only at Russia should start also looking in another direction, China." With $16 billion worth of US tariffs against China going into effect this week, our trade war with China is ongoing.

Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen is in Washington this week. While he will participate in relatively low-level trade talks, the fact that President Xi Jinping is open to talking again may mean Xi is feeling domestic pressure to negotiate an end to the trade war.

However, you should expect the war of words to continue, especially because Xi likely took note of National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow's statements last week emphasizing your "willingness to continue this battle." Kudlow's comments about the Chinese economy and yuan "slipping" were likely viewed as threats against China, and they'll respond with threats of their own.

National security adviser John Bolton's comments expressing concern over potential Chinese hacking of US elections are also likely going to elicit a response of some kind from Beijing. Chinese officials know that Russian election meddling has been met with US sanctions but also caused internal divisions for your team, so they will likely feign dismay but won't be overly concerned about any repercussions.

More tariffs aren't the only kind of strike the Chinese may be planning against us. The Pentagon now assesses that the Chinese military -- with its estimated $190 billion defense budget last year -- is "likely training for strikes against US and allied targets." The Pentagon is also reporting that China is increasing efforts to develop its nuclear capabilities, including by developing its ability to launch nuclear missiles from the air. This would give it a full triad (air, land and sea) of nuclear capable delivery systems, a signal that they are preparing to match us in conventional, as well as unconventional, areas of engagement.

Syria: Stepping back

Your decision to withhold $230 million in development assistance to Syria is likely being met with cheers from Russia and Iran, who will see it as an indication that you are handing more control -- literally and figuratively -- over to them. Because your tweet says it is time for other "countries [to] help us," involved parties -- including President Bashar al-Assad, ISIS and members of our coalition -- probably think you are announcing a draw down in US assistance in Syria in advance of a US troop draw down, which they know is one of your near-term goals.

Iran and Russia may also feel that they can use your tweet to show you're willing to cut assistance and use Syrian lives as a negotiating tactic to get other countries to contribute more militarily and financially to improve the situation in Syria. On the heels of your decision to cut US assistance, Putin publicly called for more humanitarian assistance for Syria. Putin is no humanitarian -- he has backed "animal Assad" and Assad's grave human rights abuses -- but Putin wants to position himself as the power center for postwar Syria on all fronts, because it gives him more control and you less.

Syria will likely be a key agenda item for Bolton's meetings with the Israelis and later with the Russians in the coming days. We assess that Israel will be focused on our efforts to counter Iran in Syria while the Russians will, because they want less of us in Syria, reassure Bolton that the United States stepping back is responsible.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 312521

Reported Deaths: 5498
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion42641849
Lake27152455
Allen18010298
Elkhart17177221
St. Joseph16799229
Hamilton13011167
Vanderburgh9751120
Tippecanoe858727
Porter827986
Johnson6389165
Hendricks6098157
Vigo608384
Monroe536750
Clark515077
Madison5060122
Delaware4905103
LaPorte465595
Kosciusko462339
Howard344277
Warrick325672
Bartholomew316863
Floyd316277
Wayne307770
Cass299931
Marshall299144
Grant272550
Noble255046
Hancock253852
Henry247537
Boone244554
Dubois237931
Dearborn219030
Jackson215534
Morgan210843
Knox187819
Gibson186925
Shelby182155
Clinton180321
DeKalb177831
Lawrence177648
Adams168222
Miami162614
Wabash162521
Daviess156443
Fayette149234
Steuben147113
Jasper144412
Harrison142924
LaGrange142630
Montgomery142127
Whitley137114
Ripley132115
Huntington127410
Decatur126143
Putnam124627
Randolph124519
Wells124429
White123222
Clay122523
Posey122116
Jefferson118816
Scott109020
Greene102653
Jay99013
Sullivan96416
Starke92021
Jennings85314
Fulton84518
Spencer8378
Perry82521
Fountain7798
Washington7527
Franklin69927
Carroll68613
Orange67328
Vermillion6243
Owen6087
Tipton57627
Parke5706
Newton56312
Rush5438
Blackford53412
Pike50919
Pulaski39515
Martin3585
Brown3424
Benton3402
Crawford2941
Union2702
Switzerland2575
Warren2382
Ohio2317
Unassigned0266

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 382743

Reported Deaths: 6274
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin51161671
Cuyahoga37222743
Hamilton30493372
Montgomery20518236
Butler15199148
Lucas14566417
Summit13933327
Stark9193206
Warren841976
Mahoning7530300
Lake710067
Lorain6690106
Clermont593651
Delaware572537
Licking564577
Trumbull5584147
Fairfield554464
Greene538066
Clark5218101
Allen494989
Marion476759
Medina471657
Wood4598107
Miami437568
Pickaway404048
Portage358972
Columbiana357698
Tuscarawas342667
Richland328539
Wayne327394
Mercer296047
Muskingum252510
Hancock245940
Ross244559
Auglaize236435
Darke232560
Erie230268
Putnam229449
Ashtabula228354
Geauga211851
Scioto200616
Union19668
Shelby194017
Lawrence193039
Athens19134
Seneca182919
Belmont170229
Madison163119
Sandusky157729
Preble156521
Huron155519
Defiance144823
Holmes140439
Logan133517
Knox131718
Fulton128726
Jefferson128613
Crawford126817
Washington125227
Ottawa124530
Clinton109115
Williams10799
Ashland107825
Highland103718
Brown10135
Henry101323
Hardin99719
Champaign9825
Van Wert97318
Jackson96212
Fayette92717
Morrow9202
Guernsey89314
Coshocton85215
Perry82912
Adams80313
Pike7661
Gallia76513
Wyandot73217
Paulding66511
Hocking64516
Noble62224
Carroll48810
Meigs39612
Monroe32321
Morgan2685
Vinton2246
Harrison2193
Unassigned00
Fort Wayne
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 41°
Angola
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 39°
Huntington
Overcast
45° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 40°
Decatur
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 41°
Van Wert
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 41°
Cloudy Thanksgiving
WFFT Radar
WFFT Temperatures
WFFT National

Community Events