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CNN Poll: Democratic advantage is growing

Democrats now lead Republicans by 52% to 41% in a nationwide generic Congressional ballot according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Posted: Aug 16, 2018 9:17 AM
Updated: Aug 16, 2018 9:50 AM

With Labor Day rapidly approaching, one thing is becoming clear: All signs point to the Democratic wave growing rather than shrinking in the final weeks of the 2018 election.

Point #1: A new CNN poll shows Democrats with an 11-point edge on the generic ballot, a margin that, if history is any guide, promises major gains for the minority party. By comparison, Republicans held a 49%-43% edge on the generic ballot in the final CNN poll before the 2010 election, before the party picked up more than 60 seats that year. In the final CNN poll before the 2006 election -- where Democrats netted 30 seats -- the party had a 15-point generic ballot edge.

The generic ballot question -- "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district" -- has functioned, largely effectively, as a sort of political weather vane. It tells us which way the wind is blowing and how strongly.

Point #2: Quinnipiac University has a new national poll out as well -- showing Democrats with a 9-point edge on the generic ballot. Self-identified independents -- traditionally the swing voting bloc in most elections -- favor a Democrat over a Republican by 12 points.

Point #3: The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapping site, moved three more House races in Democrats' favor on Wednesday. According to Cook's House editor, David Wasserman, the moves now mean that there are "37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nearly double the 20 we counted in January." In short: The playing field is getting bigger. And all the vulnerability is on the Republican side.

There's a tendency to avoid making any hard and fast predictions about where this election is headed because a) the old cliche that a month is like a year in politics and b) every "proven" quantitative measure showed Donald Trump losing in 2016 right before he won.

At the same time, there's very little evidence historically to suggest that the underlying dynamics of election cycles change much in their last 90 days or so -- barring some sort of catastrophic national or international event. Wrote Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cook prophetically last week:

"In modern history, we've never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don't reverse direction or dissipate."

That's very important to keep in mind amid the hand-wringing about people making inaccurate predictions because the election is soooooo far off. [Narrator voice: It's really not.] 

The Point: What we are trying to deduce between now and November 6 isn't whether this is going to be a wave election for Democrats. It is. The only issue is how big -- and who gets swept away. And recent signs suggest the answers to those two questions are a) "big" and b) "lots of Republicans."

Read Wednesday's full edition of The Point newsletter, and sign up to get future editions delivered to your inbox.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 35712

Reported Deaths: 2207
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion10037594
Lake3806202
Allen174371
Cass15927
Elkhart143529
St. Joseph132035
Hamilton118094
Hendricks118074
Johnson1120110
Madison59761
Porter55329
Clark52841
Bartholomew52238
Howard43734
LaPorte43624
Tippecanoe4214
Shelby39822
Jackson3942
Delaware38740
Hancock34928
Floyd32140
Boone31835
Vanderburgh2902
Morgan28324
Noble25121
Montgomery24417
Clinton2401
White2389
Decatur23031
Grant22123
Dubois2053
Harrison19622
Henry18412
Vigo1758
Greene17125
Dearborn17021
Monroe17012
Warrick16728
Kosciusko1661
Lawrence16524
Marshall1472
Miami1411
Putnam1377
Orange13122
Jennings1314
Scott1223
Franklin1158
Ripley1086
LaGrange1022
Daviess9516
Carroll933
Steuben872
Wayne865
Wabash802
Fayette797
Newton7810
Jasper701
Jay530
Clay522
Washington511
Rush503
Randolph503
Fulton501
Pulaski490
Jefferson471
Whitley443
DeKalb431
Starke393
Sullivan371
Owen341
Perry340
Huntington342
Brown331
Benton320
Wells320
Knox310
Blackford272
Tipton261
Crawford240
Fountain222
Switzerland210
Spencer211
Adams201
Gibson182
Parke180
Posey160
Ohio130
Warren121
Martin120
Vermillion100
Union90
Pike60
Unassigned0175

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 36792

Reported Deaths: 2300
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Franklin6112290
Cuyahoga4669247
Hamilton2739164
Marion267931
Lucas2296256
Pickaway209537
Summit1487181
Mahoning1463188
Butler93333
Columbiana88952
Stark75299
Lorain70960
Montgomery69516
Trumbull58451
Belmont43914
Warren39021
Medina36623
Miami36230
Tuscarawas3604
Ashtabula34537
Delaware34414
Portage33257
Lake31812
Fairfield3108
Clark3067
Wood30348
Geauga29533
Wayne28851
Licking26510
Mercer2207
Clermont2165
Allen21433
Richland2093
Darke18423
Erie18216
Madison1627
Washington11819
Crawford1174
Morrow1071
Ottawa10217
Greene1025
Putnam9514
Sandusky8512
Monroe7914
Auglaize763
Ross732
Hocking705
Jefferson672
Hardin640
Huron601
Williams561
Union551
Muskingum521
Hancock511
Shelby463
Holmes463
Clinton451
Fulton450
Wyandot442
Coshocton400
Logan400
Fayette400
Preble391
Guernsey362
Defiance342
Carroll313
Brown301
Lawrence300
Champaign281
Highland261
Knox251
Seneca242
Vinton212
Ashland210
Perry191
Athens181
Henry170
Scioto170
Paulding140
Jackson140
Adams101
Harrison100
Pike90
Gallia81
Van Wert70
Noble60
Meigs60
Morgan50
Unassigned00
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