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CNN House Key Races: 4 races move toward Democrats, 3 toward Republicans

The dust has mostly settled from last week's primaries in eight states, clearing the air enough to update a few of CN...

Posted: Jun 13, 2018 10:03 AM
Updated: Jun 13, 2018 10:03 AM

The dust has mostly settled from last week's primaries in eight states, clearing the air enough to update a few of CNN's House Race Ratings.

Democrats managed to avoid getting blocked from the general election ballot in several key California races that could determine control of the House in November. The party also landed its top choices in four New Jersey contests, which could further help Democrats on their mission of flipping 23 seats to seize control of the House majority.

The lack of any major surprises leaves our ratings largely intact, although there are a few races where last Tuesday's results warrant a move.

Of the seven races we are moving, four are in the direction of the Democrats, while three shift toward Republicans.

CA-10: Democrats avoided getting locked out in this Central Valley district with venture capitalist Josh Harder running a distant second behind incumbent GOP Rep. Jeff Denham. But in a potential warning sign for Denham, he received 38% of the primary vote -- nine points below his share in the 2016 primary. The 10th District is majority-minority -- including 42% Latino -- and is one of a limited number of competitive House seats in California. Denham has been one of the Republicans leading the charge in the House to force a vote on immigration reform. The four-term lawmaker has more than $2 million in the bank as of mid-May, compared with $366,000 for Harden -- though the Democrat demonstrated fundraising strength in the primary, hauling in $1.4 million since launching his bid. Denham won re-election by four points in 2016, when Hillary Clinton carried the district by three points. Barack Obama won the district by four points in 2012. Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.

CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are set to face off in what is expected to be one of the most closely-watched House races this fall. The path back to the majority for Democrats runs in large part through California, and the seven Republican-held seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. The 39th District, represented by retiring GOP Rep. Ed Royce, is among them. Clinton won here by eight points in 2016, a swing from Mitt Romney's four-point edge here four years earlier. Latinos, Asian-Americans and whites each make up roughly a third of the district's population. Cisneros, a Navy veteran and millionaire lottery winner, was the top choice of the DCCC. Kim, a Korean immigrant and former assemblywoman, could appeal to groups that typically favor Democrats. Race moves from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up.

CA-50: Embattled GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter will face public affairs consultant Ammar Campa-Najjar in this conservative district that backed Trump by 15 points and Romney by 22 points. The area is home to many veterans and military retirees, which had some Democrats thinking former Navy SEAL Josh Butner might have presented a tougher challenge to Hunter. Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official, is running on a progressive platform that includes tuition-free college and moving toward a Medicare-for-All health care system. At this point it seems the only thing stopping Hunter from re-election in November is if he is charged in the federal investigation into whether he misused campaign funds. Race moves from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

NJ-11: Democrats are poised to flip this seat represented by retiring GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen. Former federal prosecutor and Navy pilot Mikie Sherrill scored an overwhelming win in last week's Democratic primary and has $1.8 million in the bank at last check. State Assemblyman Jay Webber claimed the Republican nomination -- although there was lower turnout in the competitive GOP primary than there was on the Democratic side. His latest fundraising report showed about $225,000 cash on hand. In 2016, this Republican-leaning district backed President Trump over Hillary Clinton 48% to 47%. Mitt Romney won it with 53% four years earlier. Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.

FL-25: The decision last month by former Miami judge Mary Barzee Flores to exit the Democratic primary in the 27th District and run in the 25th gives eight-term GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart a serious challenger. Diaz-Balart starts the race with a significant fundraising advantage, entering April with $1.2 million compared with $400,000 for Barzee Flores. Donald Trump narrowly clipped Hillary Clinton in this south Florida district 49% to 48%. Four years earlier Mitt Romney won the district 51% to 49% against Barack Obama. In a strong Democratic year, Diaz-Balart could be in danger, though he has proven he can withstand such political winds in previous cycles. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

TX-31: GOP Rep. John Carter has coasted to re-election since taking office more than 15 years ago, but he's facing a potentially competitive challenge from Democrat M.J. Hegar in this central Texas district north of Austin. Hegar is a former Air Force combat search and rescue pilot who helped rescue passengers after her helicopter was shot down by the Taliban in 2009. She received a Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor Device for her service in Afghanistan. Hegar won her Democratic runoff in May by 24 points and had $117,000 cash on hand at the beginning of the month. Carter started April with $350,000 in the bank, but was outraised by Hegar in the first quarter of 2018. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

WI-07: The sudden decision last month by Kyle Frenette to withdraw from the race leaves Democrats in search of a top challenger for GOP Rep. Sean Duffy in this northern Wisconsin district. Frenette, the manager of the band Bon Iver, raised $250,000 in six weeks after launching his bid, giving Democrats hope he might be able to stay competitive with Duffy and his $2.2 million war chest. Among the Democrats running are physician Brian Ewert, attorney Margaret Engebretson and Bob Look, a former radio host whose wife was killed in a shooting last year. For now, it appears Duffy's path to re-election is a little easier. Race moves from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 751242

Reported Deaths: 13795
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1032931788
Lake556911009
Allen41692692
St. Joseph36990565
Hamilton36588417
Elkhart29398461
Tippecanoe22901226
Vanderburgh22556400
Porter19356325
Johnson18471389
Hendricks17682317
Clark13226195
Madison13149344
Vigo12614253
LaPorte12419221
Monroe12207176
Delaware10966198
Howard10321225
Kosciusko9630121
Hancock8576146
Bartholomew8169157
Warrick7860156
Floyd7811180
Grant7242179
Wayne7162201
Boone6966103
Morgan6761141
Dubois6218118
Marshall6209116
Cass6016110
Henry5900110
Dearborn589878
Noble581488
Jackson509076
Shelby501496
Lawrence4742122
Gibson444894
Clinton442355
Harrison441875
DeKalb439885
Montgomery438090
Whitley406543
Huntington402681
Steuben400159
Miami395269
Jasper388054
Knox375991
Putnam372960
Wabash361983
Ripley347170
Adams345555
Jefferson335886
White331953
Daviess3033100
Wells295281
Decatur289992
Greene286885
Fayette284864
Posey273835
LaGrange273072
Scott270156
Clay267148
Washington246036
Randolph244783
Jennings235349
Spencer234531
Starke228058
Fountain220948
Sullivan214643
Owen211858
Fulton202942
Jay200932
Carroll193620
Orange188255
Perry187237
Rush175926
Vermillion174844
Franklin170335
Tipton166246
Parke149416
Pike138234
Blackford136232
Pulaski120647
Newton113936
Brown104243
Crawford102516
Benton101714
Martin91715
Warren84015
Switzerland8148
Union72810
Ohio57911
Unassigned0420

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1108736

Reported Deaths: 20166
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin1287201467
Cuyahoga1157922211
Hamilton813971250
Montgomery525481043
Summit484271001
Lucas43353820
Butler39013606
Stark33332929
Lorain25672505
Warren24591303
Mahoning22370603
Lake21207388
Clermont20117253
Delaware18852136
Licking16662222
Fairfield16574204
Trumbull16548482
Medina15610271
Greene15281248
Clark14237306
Wood13292200
Portage13251215
Allen11913239
Richland11605211
Miami10849225
Wayne9141223
Columbiana9032230
Muskingum8906135
Pickaway8663122
Tuscarawas8649250
Marion8642138
Erie8056165
Ashtabula7160179
Hancock6998132
Ross6944161
Geauga6838151
Scioto6534106
Belmont6157174
Union584549
Lawrence5731102
Jefferson5678158
Huron5546122
Sandusky5442126
Darke5420129
Seneca5348128
Washington5319109
Athens523960
Auglaize502187
Mercer487385
Shelby476895
Knox4571112
Madison444266
Ashland435797
Putnam4336103
Defiance432399
Fulton432074
Crawford4037110
Brown402461
Logan387677
Preble3855105
Clinton379166
Ottawa373681
Highland359665
Williams348278
Champaign344759
Guernsey324953
Jackson318254
Perry297350
Morrow291840
Fayette285450
Hardin275265
Henry273467
Holmes2701101
Coshocton269060
Van Wert247264
Adams243256
Pike242835
Gallia240650
Wyandot234556
Hocking220563
Carroll197348
Paulding176542
Meigs148440
Monroe136344
Noble136239
Harrison114138
Morgan109624
Vinton85517
Unassigned03
Fort Wayne
Partly Cloudy
77° wxIcon
Hi: 90° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 79°
Angola
Mostly Cloudy
° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: °
Huntington
Partly Cloudy
78° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 80°
Decatur
Partly Cloudy
77° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 71°
Feels Like: 79°
Van Wert
Partly Cloudy
79° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 70°
Feels Like: 82°
Strong to severe storms move through Sunday evening to early Monday morning. Showers and a few storms are likely on Monday.
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