CNN House Key Races: 4 races move toward Democrats, 3 toward Republicans

The dust has mostly settled from last week's primaries in eight states, clearing the air enough to update a few of CN...

Posted: Jun 13, 2018 10:03 AM
Updated: Jun 13, 2018 10:03 AM

The dust has mostly settled from last week's primaries in eight states, clearing the air enough to update a few of CNN's House Race Ratings.

Democrats managed to avoid getting blocked from the general election ballot in several key California races that could determine control of the House in November. The party also landed its top choices in four New Jersey contests, which could further help Democrats on their mission of flipping 23 seats to seize control of the House majority.

The lack of any major surprises leaves our ratings largely intact, although there are a few races where last Tuesday's results warrant a move.

Of the seven races we are moving, four are in the direction of the Democrats, while three shift toward Republicans.

CA-10: Democrats avoided getting locked out in this Central Valley district with venture capitalist Josh Harder running a distant second behind incumbent GOP Rep. Jeff Denham. But in a potential warning sign for Denham, he received 38% of the primary vote -- nine points below his share in the 2016 primary. The 10th District is majority-minority -- including 42% Latino -- and is one of a limited number of competitive House seats in California. Denham has been one of the Republicans leading the charge in the House to force a vote on immigration reform. The four-term lawmaker has more than $2 million in the bank as of mid-May, compared with $366,000 for Harden -- though the Democrat demonstrated fundraising strength in the primary, hauling in $1.4 million since launching his bid. Denham won re-election by four points in 2016, when Hillary Clinton carried the district by three points. Barack Obama won the district by four points in 2012. Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.

CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are set to face off in what is expected to be one of the most closely-watched House races this fall. The path back to the majority for Democrats runs in large part through California, and the seven Republican-held seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. The 39th District, represented by retiring GOP Rep. Ed Royce, is among them. Clinton won here by eight points in 2016, a swing from Mitt Romney's four-point edge here four years earlier. Latinos, Asian-Americans and whites each make up roughly a third of the district's population. Cisneros, a Navy veteran and millionaire lottery winner, was the top choice of the DCCC. Kim, a Korean immigrant and former assemblywoman, could appeal to groups that typically favor Democrats. Race moves from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up.

CA-50: Embattled GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter will face public affairs consultant Ammar Campa-Najjar in this conservative district that backed Trump by 15 points and Romney by 22 points. The area is home to many veterans and military retirees, which had some Democrats thinking former Navy SEAL Josh Butner might have presented a tougher challenge to Hunter. Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official, is running on a progressive platform that includes tuition-free college and moving toward a Medicare-for-All health care system. At this point it seems the only thing stopping Hunter from re-election in November is if he is charged in the federal investigation into whether he misused campaign funds. Race moves from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

NJ-11: Democrats are poised to flip this seat represented by retiring GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen. Former federal prosecutor and Navy pilot Mikie Sherrill scored an overwhelming win in last week's Democratic primary and has $1.8 million in the bank at last check. State Assemblyman Jay Webber claimed the Republican nomination -- although there was lower turnout in the competitive GOP primary than there was on the Democratic side. His latest fundraising report showed about $225,000 cash on hand. In 2016, this Republican-leaning district backed President Trump over Hillary Clinton 48% to 47%. Mitt Romney won it with 53% four years earlier. Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.

FL-25: The decision last month by former Miami judge Mary Barzee Flores to exit the Democratic primary in the 27th District and run in the 25th gives eight-term GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart a serious challenger. Diaz-Balart starts the race with a significant fundraising advantage, entering April with $1.2 million compared with $400,000 for Barzee Flores. Donald Trump narrowly clipped Hillary Clinton in this south Florida district 49% to 48%. Four years earlier Mitt Romney won the district 51% to 49% against Barack Obama. In a strong Democratic year, Diaz-Balart could be in danger, though he has proven he can withstand such political winds in previous cycles. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

TX-31: GOP Rep. John Carter has coasted to re-election since taking office more than 15 years ago, but he's facing a potentially competitive challenge from Democrat M.J. Hegar in this central Texas district north of Austin. Hegar is a former Air Force combat search and rescue pilot who helped rescue passengers after her helicopter was shot down by the Taliban in 2009. She received a Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor Device for her service in Afghanistan. Hegar won her Democratic runoff in May by 24 points and had $117,000 cash on hand at the beginning of the month. Carter started April with $350,000 in the bank, but was outraised by Hegar in the first quarter of 2018. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

WI-07: The sudden decision last month by Kyle Frenette to withdraw from the race leaves Democrats in search of a top challenger for GOP Rep. Sean Duffy in this northern Wisconsin district. Frenette, the manager of the band Bon Iver, raised $250,000 in six weeks after launching his bid, giving Democrats hope he might be able to stay competitive with Duffy and his $2.2 million war chest. Among the Democrats running are physician Brian Ewert, attorney Margaret Engebretson and Bob Look, a former radio host whose wife was killed in a shooting last year. For now, it appears Duffy's path to re-election is a little easier. Race moves from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 613228

Reported Deaths: 9728
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion846851338
Lake45676687
Allen32980552
Hamilton29649315
St. Joseph27531382
Elkhart24478345
Vanderburgh19610250
Tippecanoe18108141
Johnson15191295
Porter14944169
Hendricks14485250
Madison11044222
Clark10811144
Vigo10795181
Monroe9458113
Delaware9170134
LaPorte9145164
Howard8292144
Kosciusko810183
Warrick680299
Hancock6782104
Bartholomew6640100
Floyd6507110
Wayne6177162
Grant6027116
Dubois558680
Boone556468
Morgan548695
Henry511464
Marshall506984
Cass486964
Dearborn486545
Noble475659
Jackson427747
Shelby420781
Lawrence393780
Clinton375044
Gibson374459
Harrison353045
DeKalb349864
Montgomery347654
Knox336239
Miami324544
Steuben315046
Whitley311126
Wabash305851
Adams302836
Ripley300546
Putnam298950
Huntington294860
Jasper291734
White275143
Daviess271774
Jefferson266238
Decatur249583
Fayette248648
Greene242262
Posey241028
Wells236951
LaGrange230062
Scott226839
Clay224332
Randolph215248
Jennings200636
Sullivan193533
Spencer193022
Washington188023
Fountain184927
Starke176444
Jay168623
Owen167637
Fulton164830
Orange160935
Carroll159715
Rush156318
Perry155929
Vermillion149734
Franklin149333
Tipton133133
Parke13088
Pike118526
Blackford111822
Pulaski97837
Newton92021
Brown88335
Benton87110
Crawford8099
Martin74913
Warren6857
Switzerland6695
Union6297
Ohio4977
Unassigned0376

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 868656

Reported Deaths: 10768
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin102154707
Cuyahoga865201153
Hamilton64744448
Montgomery43516419
Summit35250762
Lucas31663631
Butler31268232
Stark26096443
Warren19830142
Lorain19296229
Mahoning17471339
Lake16250154
Clermont16128112
Delaware1453680
Licking13326137
Fairfield1294981
Trumbull12920317
Greene12174141
Medina11732168
Clark11058265
Wood10457158
Allen9988127
Portage9454111
Miami924473
Richland9236118
Marion7486113
Tuscarawas7440183
Columbiana7409124
Pickaway732150
Wayne7111172
Muskingum710342
Erie6221130
Ross5558100
Hancock555292
Scioto542764
Geauga515955
Darke473492
Lawrence460658
Union456928
Ashtabula456473
Sandusky439562
Mercer435089
Seneca433866
Huron432841
Auglaize424164
Shelby422522
Jefferson422469
Belmont421145
Washington394240
Athens38389
Putnam378075
Madison358129
Knox356122
Ashland349038
Fulton340443
Defiance334486
Crawford325774
Preble322737
Brown315821
Logan312132
Ottawa296543
Clinton291543
Williams280367
Highland279018
Jackson265845
Guernsey257126
Champaign253428
Fayette239530
Morrow23464
Perry233718
Holmes226774
Henry221953
Hardin215533
Coshocton206922
Van Wert203445
Gallia199826
Wyandot196751
Pike178017
Adams177715
Hocking173224
Carroll157616
Paulding145321
Noble121040
Meigs109724
Monroe102232
Harrison89921
Morgan83931
Vinton71314
Unassigned00
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