CNN House Key Races: 4 races move toward Democrats, 3 toward Republicans

The dust has mostly settled from last week's primaries in eight states, clearing the air enough to update a few of CN...

Posted: Jun 13, 2018 10:03 AM
Updated: Jun 13, 2018 10:03 AM

The dust has mostly settled from last week's primaries in eight states, clearing the air enough to update a few of CNN's House Race Ratings.

Democrats managed to avoid getting blocked from the general election ballot in several key California races that could determine control of the House in November. The party also landed its top choices in four New Jersey contests, which could further help Democrats on their mission of flipping 23 seats to seize control of the House majority.

The lack of any major surprises leaves our ratings largely intact, although there are a few races where last Tuesday's results warrant a move.

Of the seven races we are moving, four are in the direction of the Democrats, while three shift toward Republicans.

CA-10: Democrats avoided getting locked out in this Central Valley district with venture capitalist Josh Harder running a distant second behind incumbent GOP Rep. Jeff Denham. But in a potential warning sign for Denham, he received 38% of the primary vote -- nine points below his share in the 2016 primary. The 10th District is majority-minority -- including 42% Latino -- and is one of a limited number of competitive House seats in California. Denham has been one of the Republicans leading the charge in the House to force a vote on immigration reform. The four-term lawmaker has more than $2 million in the bank as of mid-May, compared with $366,000 for Harden -- though the Democrat demonstrated fundraising strength in the primary, hauling in $1.4 million since launching his bid. Denham won re-election by four points in 2016, when Hillary Clinton carried the district by three points. Barack Obama won the district by four points in 2012. Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.

CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are set to face off in what is expected to be one of the most closely-watched House races this fall. The path back to the majority for Democrats runs in large part through California, and the seven Republican-held seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. The 39th District, represented by retiring GOP Rep. Ed Royce, is among them. Clinton won here by eight points in 2016, a swing from Mitt Romney's four-point edge here four years earlier. Latinos, Asian-Americans and whites each make up roughly a third of the district's population. Cisneros, a Navy veteran and millionaire lottery winner, was the top choice of the DCCC. Kim, a Korean immigrant and former assemblywoman, could appeal to groups that typically favor Democrats. Race moves from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up.

CA-50: Embattled GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter will face public affairs consultant Ammar Campa-Najjar in this conservative district that backed Trump by 15 points and Romney by 22 points. The area is home to many veterans and military retirees, which had some Democrats thinking former Navy SEAL Josh Butner might have presented a tougher challenge to Hunter. Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official, is running on a progressive platform that includes tuition-free college and moving toward a Medicare-for-All health care system. At this point it seems the only thing stopping Hunter from re-election in November is if he is charged in the federal investigation into whether he misused campaign funds. Race moves from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

NJ-11: Democrats are poised to flip this seat represented by retiring GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen. Former federal prosecutor and Navy pilot Mikie Sherrill scored an overwhelming win in last week's Democratic primary and has $1.8 million in the bank at last check. State Assemblyman Jay Webber claimed the Republican nomination -- although there was lower turnout in the competitive GOP primary than there was on the Democratic side. His latest fundraising report showed about $225,000 cash on hand. In 2016, this Republican-leaning district backed President Trump over Hillary Clinton 48% to 47%. Mitt Romney won it with 53% four years earlier. Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.

FL-25: The decision last month by former Miami judge Mary Barzee Flores to exit the Democratic primary in the 27th District and run in the 25th gives eight-term GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart a serious challenger. Diaz-Balart starts the race with a significant fundraising advantage, entering April with $1.2 million compared with $400,000 for Barzee Flores. Donald Trump narrowly clipped Hillary Clinton in this south Florida district 49% to 48%. Four years earlier Mitt Romney won the district 51% to 49% against Barack Obama. In a strong Democratic year, Diaz-Balart could be in danger, though he has proven he can withstand such political winds in previous cycles. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

TX-31: GOP Rep. John Carter has coasted to re-election since taking office more than 15 years ago, but he's facing a potentially competitive challenge from Democrat M.J. Hegar in this central Texas district north of Austin. Hegar is a former Air Force combat search and rescue pilot who helped rescue passengers after her helicopter was shot down by the Taliban in 2009. She received a Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor Device for her service in Afghanistan. Hegar won her Democratic runoff in May by 24 points and had $117,000 cash on hand at the beginning of the month. Carter started April with $350,000 in the bank, but was outraised by Hegar in the first quarter of 2018. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

WI-07: The sudden decision last month by Kyle Frenette to withdraw from the race leaves Democrats in search of a top challenger for GOP Rep. Sean Duffy in this northern Wisconsin district. Frenette, the manager of the band Bon Iver, raised $250,000 in six weeks after launching his bid, giving Democrats hope he might be able to stay competitive with Duffy and his $2.2 million war chest. Among the Democrats running are physician Brian Ewert, attorney Margaret Engebretson and Bob Look, a former radio host whose wife was killed in a shooting last year. For now, it appears Duffy's path to re-election is a little easier. Race moves from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 157713

Reported Deaths: 4092
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion25392789
Lake13805355
St. Joseph9277163
Elkhart8890135
Allen8278230
Hamilton6215113
Vanderburgh588261
Tippecanoe375915
Hendricks3302133
Monroe326638
Porter322049
Johnson3151129
Delaware297074
Clark296762
Vigo264840
Madison240595
LaPorte226658
Cass225522
Warrick195265
Kosciusko187826
Floyd180167
Howard164066
Bartholomew143358
Marshall140026
Dubois139626
Wayne132130
Henry128430
Grant127839
Boone124550
Hancock119944
Noble117434
Jackson114416
Dearborn98028
Morgan94840
Lawrence90837
Daviess89334
Gibson88612
Clinton86716
Shelby83531
LaGrange81015
Knox77410
Harrison77324
Putnam73716
Posey7236
DeKalb72011
Fayette69018
Steuben6338
Miami6305
Jasper6175
White59215
Montgomery59022
Greene55337
Scott52413
Decatur50739
Adams5027
Whitley4636
Clay4537
Ripley4538
Sullivan44414
Wells43511
Wabash4219
Starke4157
Orange40925
Huntington4015
Spencer3956
Washington3783
Franklin37625
Jennings36913
Fulton3653
Randolph3659
Jefferson3435
Pike33518
Carroll32913
Perry32614
Jay3116
Fountain3073
Tipton27823
Vermillion2531
Parke2374
Newton23011
Blackford2193
Rush2184
Owen2071
Martin2000
Crawford1591
Pulaski1562
Brown1433
Ohio1327
Benton1120
Union1110
Switzerland960
Warren841
Unassigned0234

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 192948

Reported Deaths: 5184
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Franklin31703640
Cuyahoga19906684
Hamilton16878344
Montgomery10546189
Butler8401130
Lucas8364373
Summit6780265
Warren428466
Stark3853182
Mahoning3739287
Marion341250
Pickaway302446
Delaware290627
Lorain275489
Fairfield268657
Licking262366
Clark253057
Wood252981
Clermont251238
Greene234542
Trumbull2290134
Allen218373
Columbiana213387
Miami202858
Lake196659
Medina188942
Portage165468
Mercer154728
Wayne144669
Ross141537
Richland135124
Tuscarawas130825
Athens12352
Erie116953
Darke115551
Hancock106626
Madison106315
Auglaize102316
Putnam101627
Lawrence94525
Shelby91714
Muskingum9044
Scioto8719
Geauga86950
Belmont78927
Union7703
Ashtabula73548
Sandusky71722
Huron71614
Preble63518
Holmes63310
Seneca60714
Ottawa58930
Fulton54513
Henry48817
Jefferson4774
Clinton47213
Jackson4728
Crawford4688
Defiance46613
Fayette4528
Highland4446
Logan4353
Ashland4109
Champaign4053
Knox39416
Brown3883
Perry37311
Morrow3562
Washington35524
Hardin34813
Williams3464
Guernsey3298
Coshocton32412
Pike3120
Wyandot29813
Gallia29213
Van Wert2685
Carroll2157
Adams2126
Meigs21012
Paulding2072
Hocking1999
Monroe16318
Noble1480
Vinton1043
Harrison843
Morgan800
Unassigned00
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