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CNN key House races: New Pennsylvania maps help Democrats in several districts

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court gave Democrats a boost in their effort to gain control of the House this week when it ...

Posted: Feb 21, 2018 10:34 AM
Updated: Feb 21, 2018 10:34 AM

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court gave Democrats a boost in their effort to gain control of the House this week when it unveiled new congressional district maps and ordered them implemented in time for the midterm elections.

Unless Republicans efforts to challenge the new maps in federal court are successful, Democrats look poised to pick up several seats in the Philadelphia suburbs. So we'll start there and move westward through the new districts.

The biggest Republican loser in the redrawn maps: Rep. Ryan Costello.

His winding, Chester County-based district was already a top Democratic target. But he's a moderate incumbent with strong fundraising figures, so he was the slight favorite for re-election. That's no longer the case. The new 6th District voted in favor of Hillary Clinton over President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points in 2016, and given Democrats' surge in suburbia in recent state and special elections across the country, this territory could be even more favorable to Democratic challenger Chrissy Houlahan this fall. This district now leans in Democrats' favor.

Freshman Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is another Republican already locked in a tough re-election in the Philadelphia suburbs. His Bucks County-based district didn't change much, but now incorporates a more left-leaning portion of Montgomery County than it had before. What's now the 1st District favored Clinton by 2 points. Fitzpatrick's district, which previously was rated lean Republican, is now a toss-up.

One Philadelphia-area seat Republicans are almost certain to lose is the new 5th District, an area previously represented in part by Rep. Pat Meehan, a Republican retiring amid a sexual harassment scandal. The district favored Clinton by an eye-popping 26 points in 2016. For now, we'll rate it likely Democratic while we wait to see if Republicans can recruit someone to make this a race.

Another major shift came in the new Pennsylvania 7th District, an altered version of the Lehigh Valley district where Republican Rep. Charlie Dent is retiring. Previously favorable ground for the GOP, it's now an open seat that voted in Clinton's favor by a point in 2016 and leans Democratic.

The biggest Republican winner under the new maps is Rep. Lloyd Smucker, whose seat now appears safe. His Lancaster-based district, which now becomes the 11th District, moves from a likely Republican rating, which reflected the reality that it was a longshot Democratic target, to a solid Republican rating.

Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright's northeastern Pennsylvania territory becomes the new 8th District. Even though it favored Trump in 2016, Cartwright is an established, well-funded incumbent, and his seat maintains a likely Democratic rating.

Western Pennsylvania

The new congressional map also has the potential to shake things up in the western part of the state.

It won't take effect before the March 13 special election in the 18th District, vacated by former GOP Rep. Tim Murphy. Democrat Conor Lamb is currently within striking distance of Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone in a district that Trump carried by 20 points in 2016.

The 18th District will, with some tweaks, become the 14th District under the new map. The redrawn district appears to be more favorable terrain for Republicans.

However, that means that the newly formed 17th District, just west of Pittsburgh, would present a more appealing opportunity for Lamb, win or lose in March. Should he run there, he would likely challenge GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus, who currently represents what's been much safer turf for Republicans than the new 17th District, which went narrowly for Trump in 2016 and includes suburban areas that have recently been favorable terrain for Democrats.

The new 17th District moves from a solid Republican rating to lean Republican for now, with a Lamb bid having the potential to push it into toss-up territory.

Our ratings account for an oddity of Pennsylvania's new political reality, with the previous maps having a last hurrah in the March special election: The current 18th District is still in place, and still carries a lean Republican rating. As soon as that election takes place, though, it'll drop from our ratings, with the new 14th District appearing to be solidly Republican.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 595436

Reported Deaths: 9466
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion822851311
Lake44626670
Allen32165543
Hamilton28684308
St. Joseph26917378
Elkhart24173343
Vanderburgh18856236
Tippecanoe17638125
Johnson14687289
Porter14513163
Hendricks14010242
Madison10715216
Vigo10540177
Clark10349135
Monroe9189108
Delaware8956134
LaPorte8867158
Howard7982140
Kosciusko791380
Warrick652994
Hancock646999
Bartholomew631096
Floyd6205107
Wayne5984159
Grant5874110
Dubois547175
Boone538867
Morgan524192
Henry497764
Marshall495384
Cass475362
Dearborn464545
Noble463157
Jackson417846
Shelby405680
Lawrence383876
Clinton367840
Gibson360058
DeKalb339163
Montgomery338152
Harrison333643
Knox329839
Miami312743
Steuben309343
Adams297435
Whitley297225
Wabash294947
Ripley294345
Putnam288047
Jasper285234
Huntington284959
White269138
Daviess263073
Jefferson253838
Decatur243482
Fayette242948
Greene237062
Posey234427
Wells231347
LaGrange225061
Clay219032
Scott218538
Randolph209845
Jennings193935
Sullivan189632
Spencer184319
Fountain180527
Washington179321
Starke172743
Jay163922
Fulton161130
Owen161137
Carroll153915
Orange152933
Rush151618
Perry149327
Vermillion145833
Franklin144433
Tipton129232
Parke12918
Pike114326
Blackford109222
Pulaski95337
Newton89821
Brown85931
Benton85310
Crawford7719
Martin70713
Warren6637
Switzerland6235
Union6146
Ohio4727
Unassigned0374

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 836049

Reported Deaths: 10323
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin98533705
Cuyahoga831801065
Hamilton61931441
Montgomery42028399
Summit33849736
Lucas30524605
Butler30003228
Stark25093419
Warren19083140
Lorain18418212
Mahoning16931337
Lake15592136
Clermont15335105
Delaware1403077
Licking12819132
Trumbull12515307
Fairfield1232480
Greene11729135
Medina11286165
Clark10672264
Wood10081156
Allen9639126
Portage9006107
Miami895273
Richland8910116
Marion7377113
Tuscarawas7177174
Columbiana7164124
Pickaway710350
Wayne6855165
Muskingum678241
Erie5976118
Hancock542990
Ross535287
Scioto527063
Geauga491755
Darke459489
Ashtabula443172
Lawrence439353
Union437028
Sandusky427462
Mercer427387
Seneca417357
Auglaize416259
Huron416138
Shelby413521
Jefferson409066
Belmont403740
Washington375940
Putnam367872
Athens36759
Madison343429
Knox340122
Ashland336838
Fulton328543
Defiance322578
Crawford316371
Preble313836
Brown298819
Logan296529
Ottawa283934
Clinton281243
Williams272866
Highland266018
Jackson259043
Guernsey245325
Champaign244427
Fayette229729
Morrow22574
Perry223318
Holmes220362
Henry213547
Hardin206433
Coshocton199620
Van Wert198744
Wyandot192549
Gallia192126
Adams167415
Pike167417
Hocking165523
Carroll151316
Paulding141121
Noble118740
Meigs105021
Monroe97229
Harrison8598
Morgan79728
Vinton67613
Unassigned00
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