Shutdown watch: Key House vote Tuesday but Senate changes expected

House Republican leaders have the votes to pass a bill Tuesday to fund the government through March 23, with a full d...

Posted: Feb 6, 2018 3:35 PM
Updated: Feb 6, 2018 3:35 PM

House Republican leaders have the votes to pass a bill Tuesday to fund the government through March 23, with a full defense appropriations bill attached to the measure, as well as two years of funding for community health centers.

This is the start of the real work -- but far from the finish line. What will the final funding bill look like? Well, that's up to the US Senate. In the meantime, the government shuts down in less than 72 hours.

Bottom line: Major changes are coming to the House proposal when it crosses the Capitol to the Senate -- and House Republicans know that. Senate GOP aides acknowledge the defense funding piece will be stripped out, but what will be added in its place is still very up in the air. What's on the table: Potentially a very big deal. Or just more can-kicking.

Will there be a government shutdown?

According to senior aides -- and lawmakers -- in both parties, in both chambers, no.

What a 'big deal' rests on

A budget caps deal. This is the trigger -- and, to be frank, has been for months. If Democratic and Republican negotiators lock in an agreement to raise budget caps on defense spending and non-defense domestic spending, that will open up everything else.

What a big deal could include:

  • Budget caps deal, which would allow appropriators to draft an omnibus spending bill by March 23
  • Disaster relief package
  • Community health center funding/various health care extenders
  • Debt ceiling increase

Just to be clear here: This would be a major, major development if negotiators could get this done.

It would clear the decks and lock in some modicum of bipartisanship in advance of the Senate floor debate on immigration. Both parties would be able to claim major victories (Republicans on defense, Democrats on domestic spending.)

And because of that: There's still a healthy amount of skepticism this can actually get done, especially in such a short time period. As Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Missouri, a veteran appropriator, told CNN on Thursday with a grin: "I wouldn't bet my house on it." But this is by far the most optimistic I've heard aides about this in weeks, if not months.

What's the hold up?

Over the past few months, it's been two things: "parity," i.e. Democrats saying any spending increases for defense must be matched on the non-defense side, and, of course, a solution for the expiring Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

The latter has been the real hang-up, and sources tell CNN they are pretty much there on topline funding numbers for the deal. There is more work to do to hammer out the final agreement, these sources say, but the very clear elephant in the room is DACA.

Where are House Democrats?

The overhanging reality in the talks about potentially locking in a major agreement this week is Democrats will be needed in both chambers to muscle it to passage. Not so much an issue in the Senate. But without a DACA resolution in sight, a potentially major issue in the House.

Would House Democrats, who have made clear they want to hold off on a caps deal until DACA is solved, give the votes to pass a large-scale deal? That's still an open question -- and a potentially significant gamble by the Senate if they move forward without those assurances.

What if there is no 'big deal'?

Senate GOP and Democratic aides say expect the chamber to take up the House bill, strip the defense funding because Democrats won't accept it on the measure, potentially add some disaster relief money and possibly a few other smaller provisions where there is bipartisan agreement, then send it back to the House.

Can House GOP leaders pass a short-term spending bill without defense: Great question. Aides seem unconcerned at the moment -- it's no secret the Senate will strip the defense piece from this bill, so they know it's going to be volleyed back before the Thursday funding deadline.

How this will work?

House Republicans will pass their continuing resolution defense funding bill Tuesday and send it to the Senate.

The Senate will separately take up the House-passed defense funding bill. They don't have the votes to move that forward, so it's largely an exercise in showing it will fail.

Once the House sends its continuing resolution over to the Senate, the Senate will prepare to move onto that.

Then we wait to see what they put into the bill -- and what the result of the intense behind the scenes negotiations are at the moment.

When will this all get done: Even though House Democrats are scheduled to leave for their party retreat on Wednesday, most aides expect there will need to be final votes on a funding bill as late as Thursday before the deadline. At the moment, however, the timing is fluid.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 590211

Reported Deaths: 9310
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion815581297
Lake44306666
Allen31919541
Hamilton28371304
St. Joseph26766371
Elkhart24098341
Vanderburgh18643213
Tippecanoe17422121
Johnson14496284
Porter14399160
Hendricks13870241
Madison10561212
Vigo10483171
Clark10240130
Monroe9076108
Delaware8836132
LaPorte8771155
Howard7897138
Kosciusko787277
Warrick643890
Hancock638797
Bartholomew626694
Floyd6150105
Wayne5933157
Grant5818110
Dubois544372
Boone534367
Morgan516291
Marshall494184
Henry493664
Cass471760
Noble460557
Dearborn458444
Jackson414745
Shelby402179
Lawrence380575
Clinton364539
Gibson356556
DeKalb337363
Montgomery334851
Harrison328542
Knox327839
Miami309843
Steuben306340
Adams295235
Whitley294125
Wabash293045
Ripley292345
Putnam284847
Huntington283557
Jasper282433
White267538
Daviess261672
Jefferson250738
Fayette242348
Decatur242182
Greene233360
Posey232326
Wells229447
LaGrange224161
Clay217932
Scott216937
Randolph208340
Jennings192535
Sullivan189031
Spencer181917
Fountain179725
Washington177118
Starke171341
Jay162821
Owen159537
Fulton159229
Carroll152115
Orange151433
Rush149918
Perry147227
Vermillion144933
Franklin143433
Parke12908
Tipton128232
Pike113625
Blackford107522
Pulaski95237
Newton89421
Brown85530
Benton84310
Crawford7579
Martin70013
Warren6587
Switzerland6205
Union6113
Ohio4677
Unassigned0374

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 826754

Reported Deaths: 10200
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin97493705
Cuyahoga821781012
Hamilton61350439
Montgomery41700399
Summit33399726
Lucas30111597
Butler29721228
Stark24811400
Warren18917139
Lorain18086212
Mahoning16758335
Lake15365135
Clermont15160104
Delaware1382177
Licking12679132
Trumbull12401302
Fairfield1218480
Greene11631133
Medina11128165
Clark10608264
Wood9964154
Allen9511126
Portage8867105
Miami886573
Richland8790116
Marion7319113
Tuscarawas7142174
Columbiana7085124
Pickaway702850
Wayne6781164
Muskingum671242
Erie5886118
Hancock537890
Ross530287
Scioto519662
Geauga483555
Darke457589
Ashtabula439068
Lawrence432651
Union430628
Mercer424287
Sandusky421862
Seneca413555
Auglaize412759
Huron410338
Shelby410221
Jefferson403366
Belmont395640
Washington372040
Putnam364672
Athens36369
Madison339329
Knox336522
Ashland331738
Fulton325943
Defiance319278
Crawford313268
Preble311534
Brown296619
Logan292729
Ottawa282134
Clinton279043
Williams270166
Highland262418
Jackson256943
Guernsey241725
Champaign240927
Fayette225529
Morrow22294
Perry221318
Holmes218662
Henry210247
Hardin204133
Coshocton197420
Van Wert196644
Gallia190926
Wyandot190549
Adams165615
Pike164116
Hocking163423
Carroll149516
Paulding139021
Noble117840
Meigs103221
Monroe95629
Harrison8568
Morgan79128
Vinton67113
Unassigned00
Fort Wayne
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 20°
Angola
Cloudy
28° wxIcon
Hi: 29° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 20°
Huntington
Cloudy
29° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 21°
Fort Wayne
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 30° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 20°
Lima
Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 19°
Seasonal Monday
WFFT Radar
WFFT Temperatures
WFFT National

Community Events