Shutdown watch: Key House vote Tuesday but Senate changes expected

House Republican leaders have the votes to pass a bill Tuesday to fund the government through March 23, with a full d...

Posted: Feb 6, 2018 3:35 PM
Updated: Feb 6, 2018 3:35 PM

House Republican leaders have the votes to pass a bill Tuesday to fund the government through March 23, with a full defense appropriations bill attached to the measure, as well as two years of funding for community health centers.

This is the start of the real work -- but far from the finish line. What will the final funding bill look like? Well, that's up to the US Senate. In the meantime, the government shuts down in less than 72 hours.

Bottom line: Major changes are coming to the House proposal when it crosses the Capitol to the Senate -- and House Republicans know that. Senate GOP aides acknowledge the defense funding piece will be stripped out, but what will be added in its place is still very up in the air. What's on the table: Potentially a very big deal. Or just more can-kicking.

Will there be a government shutdown?

According to senior aides -- and lawmakers -- in both parties, in both chambers, no.

What a 'big deal' rests on

A budget caps deal. This is the trigger -- and, to be frank, has been for months. If Democratic and Republican negotiators lock in an agreement to raise budget caps on defense spending and non-defense domestic spending, that will open up everything else.

What a big deal could include:

  • Budget caps deal, which would allow appropriators to draft an omnibus spending bill by March 23
  • Disaster relief package
  • Community health center funding/various health care extenders
  • Debt ceiling increase

Just to be clear here: This would be a major, major development if negotiators could get this done.

It would clear the decks and lock in some modicum of bipartisanship in advance of the Senate floor debate on immigration. Both parties would be able to claim major victories (Republicans on defense, Democrats on domestic spending.)

And because of that: There's still a healthy amount of skepticism this can actually get done, especially in such a short time period. As Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Missouri, a veteran appropriator, told CNN on Thursday with a grin: "I wouldn't bet my house on it." But this is by far the most optimistic I've heard aides about this in weeks, if not months.

What's the hold up?

Over the past few months, it's been two things: "parity," i.e. Democrats saying any spending increases for defense must be matched on the non-defense side, and, of course, a solution for the expiring Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

The latter has been the real hang-up, and sources tell CNN they are pretty much there on topline funding numbers for the deal. There is more work to do to hammer out the final agreement, these sources say, but the very clear elephant in the room is DACA.

Where are House Democrats?

The overhanging reality in the talks about potentially locking in a major agreement this week is Democrats will be needed in both chambers to muscle it to passage. Not so much an issue in the Senate. But without a DACA resolution in sight, a potentially major issue in the House.

Would House Democrats, who have made clear they want to hold off on a caps deal until DACA is solved, give the votes to pass a large-scale deal? That's still an open question -- and a potentially significant gamble by the Senate if they move forward without those assurances.

What if there is no 'big deal'?

Senate GOP and Democratic aides say expect the chamber to take up the House bill, strip the defense funding because Democrats won't accept it on the measure, potentially add some disaster relief money and possibly a few other smaller provisions where there is bipartisan agreement, then send it back to the House.

Can House GOP leaders pass a short-term spending bill without defense: Great question. Aides seem unconcerned at the moment -- it's no secret the Senate will strip the defense piece from this bill, so they know it's going to be volleyed back before the Thursday funding deadline.

How this will work?

House Republicans will pass their continuing resolution defense funding bill Tuesday and send it to the Senate.

The Senate will separately take up the House-passed defense funding bill. They don't have the votes to move that forward, so it's largely an exercise in showing it will fail.

Once the House sends its continuing resolution over to the Senate, the Senate will prepare to move onto that.

Then we wait to see what they put into the bill -- and what the result of the intense behind the scenes negotiations are at the moment.

When will this all get done: Even though House Democrats are scheduled to leave for their party retreat on Wednesday, most aides expect there will need to be final votes on a funding bill as late as Thursday before the deadline. At the moment, however, the timing is fluid.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 954230

Reported Deaths: 15474
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion1298902003
Lake638781106
Allen54326765
Hamilton44326448
St. Joseph42368592
Elkhart33998491
Vanderburgh30740451
Tippecanoe27012251
Johnson23862420
Hendricks22576343
Porter21943348
Clark17657231
Madison17628387
Vigo16465285
Monroe14637193
LaPorte14493241
Delaware14291225
Howard14058274
Kosciusko11562137
Hancock11022168
Warrick10793179
Bartholomew10730171
Floyd10584209
Wayne10169230
Grant9271206
Morgan9000160
Boone8507112
Dubois7823124
Dearborn776391
Henry7749134
Noble7510101
Marshall7452129
Cass7244118
Lawrence7080154
Shelby6701111
Jackson666386
Gibson6233107
Harrison613287
Huntington608397
Montgomery5903106
DeKalb587591
Knox5589105
Miami554889
Putnam547668
Clinton540566
Whitley534054
Steuben506570
Wabash492792
Jasper487763
Jefferson478992
Ripley463477
Adams448868
Daviess4267109
Scott413065
Clay398358
Greene396892
White396158
Wells393285
Decatur391297
Fayette383380
Posey364341
Jennings358857
Washington336847
LaGrange327375
Spencer323037
Randolph320290
Fountain320156
Sullivan311349
Owen289764
Starke287565
Fulton282356
Orange279259
Jay260038
Perry256353
Carroll247129
Franklin244938
Rush238930
Vermillion237751
Parke222421
Tipton214255
Pike214041
Blackford172934
Pulaski170351
Crawford148519
Newton147046
Benton144716
Brown136646
Martin130618
Switzerland127810
Warren116116
Union99511
Ohio80911
Unassigned0494

Ohio Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 1393696

Reported Deaths: 21820
CountyCasesDeaths
Franklin1544531574
Cuyahoga1364632341
Hamilton991581326
Montgomery682681161
Summit571661051
Lucas51927869
Butler48223663
Stark42502983
Lorain32263539
Warren30544338
Mahoning27651643
Clermont26123297
Lake24920422
Delaware22656147
Licking20886246
Fairfield20833223
Greene20708275
Trumbull20465516
Medina20236290
Clark18277332
Richland16793236
Portage16501231
Wood16002209
Allen14459261
Miami14091261
Muskingum13019155
Wayne12306244
Columbiana12094242
Tuscarawas11297271
Marion10960150
Pickaway10675129
Scioto10618127
Erie9905171
Ross9685177
Lawrence9005125
Hancock8667143
Ashtabula8533187
Belmont8301188
Geauga8294156
Jefferson7785175
Huron7598131
Union745351
Washington7451126
Athens712965
Sandusky7003135
Darke6906137
Knox6876122
Seneca6551137
Ashland6095115
Auglaize598788
Shelby5867104
Brown579072
Mercer566790
Crawford5603117
Defiance5587101
Madison552571
Highland551782
Fulton544583
Clinton537681
Logan521987
Preble5131111
Putnam4915107
Guernsey489464
Williams471582
Perry466254
Champaign456664
Ottawa444684
Jackson438763
Pike402645
Morrow400551
Coshocton398069
Fayette385253
Adams373675
Hardin369470
Gallia357858
Henry332969
Holmes3328111
Van Wert323271
Hocking312570
Wyandot286858
Carroll268252
Paulding248843
Meigs225542
Monroe193449
Noble174942
Morgan171229
Harrison161941
Vinton143119
Unassigned05
Fort Wayne
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Angola
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Huntington
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Decatur
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Van Wert
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A weak cold front brings slightly cooler air to the region Tuesday.
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